It is encouraging that Mariona sees, and is allowed to see, that much of the trap. Esta will not seize on it, he thinks, not even through too much encouragement or praise.
"If you say so, Merrin, then I so credit it. It would fit with some of my other speculations about what might be happening."
"But consider now the failure of [Planar Binding], perhaps because the [Outer God] placed us far off the usual interplanar paths --"
"Or -- perhaps because It continues to watch us and directly intervened to make the spell fail. [Outer Gods] are not limited by the [Compact of Creation] in how much They intervene, when They expend the force to intrude on [Creation] at all."
"Regardless. What was the averted counterfactual, had the [Planar Binding] succeeded? Our recovering the Bag too quickly? My contacting an [outsider] that could convey news of our situation to our mutual department, which might then rescue us both, and too quickly for Its game?"
"Those are both possibilities, but not certain to be Its full motive."
"Consider that in the averted counterfactual, an [outsider] can also talk to me and answer questions, should it be so minded. A [Lawful] [outsider] might even tell the truth, and could [swear] to its answers."
"One of us or both have been altered, given false memories."
"If my memories are all true, an [outsider] should tell you that it has never heard of a place called {dath ilan}. This probably does not move you much. The [outsider] is to you a mere thing of altered-Estha's, and of course it just believes what altered-Estha believes. If I read your books I would expect them to confirm what altered-Merrin believes, and not be much moved by that. The [Outer God] would then see little meaning in averting that event, which would change little of Its game."
"Suppose however that my own memories have been altered."
"I would by default believe a [Lawful] outsider which [swore] to me about that."
"So maybe that is the real reason that my [Planar Inquiry] and [Planar Binding] failed -- to avert the counterfactual where an [outsider] told me how my memories had been altered."
"No action on your part is commanded by this. But it seems to me that you ought to be aware of the chain of reasoning."