"There was indeed a formal market-anchored-nonmarket-counterfactual estimate that if 'adding in Merrin' came last in the permutation and after everyone else had already decided their contributions, the patient's survival chance thereby went up by 1/3 of prior baseline.  In the end that was zero to zero, but in terms of probabilities before the fact it was 15% to 20%.  A lot of the apparent-logodds-of-success that it was possible to get at all lay at stake in those first 30 minutes of stabilization, before it was possible to get anyone else on scene who could have run all the emergency equipment simultaneously, and having five differently-certed oppers trying to coordinate those machines would have probably been a substantial loss.  Having one person learning the patient's particular realtime-procedural-skill details for twelve hours straight wasn't negligible either.  If the larger system of the world had worked out earlier that you could do that, you could have been at Default earlier and done that for other patients who needed it, though they'd have been less well-paying cases."

"The ominous supervillain lecture surrounding these relatively straightforward counterfacts is, shall we say, a choice of particular slant and emphasis to put on those counterfacts, and not everyone would find Catchall's slant useful.  I didn't."

"There was indeed a formal market-anchored-nonmarket-counterfactual estimate that if 'adding in Merrin' came last in the permutation and after everyone else had already decided their contributions, the patient's survival logodds thereby went up by .4 bits.  In the end that was zero to zero, but in terms of probabilities before the fact it was 15% to 20%.  A lot of the apparent-logodds-of-success that it was possible to seize at all lay at stake in those first 30 minutes of stabilization, before it was possible to get anyone else on scene who could have run all the emergency equipment simultaneously, and having five differently-certed oppers trying to coordinate those machines would have in the market-grounded-counterfactual-model been a substantial expected loss.  Having one person learning the patient's particular realtime-procedural-skill details for twelve hours straight wasn't negligible either.  If the larger system of the world had worked out earlier that you could do that, you could have been at Default earlier and done that for other patients.  They'd have been less well-paying cases, but your earnings prior to today would have been substantially greater if that career offer had been made you and you had accepted it."

"The ominous supervillain lecture surrounding these relatively straightforward counterfacts is, shall we say, a choice of particular slant and emphasis to put on those counterfacts, and not everyone would find Catchall's slant useful.  I didn't."

"There was indeed a formal market-anchored-nonmarket-counterfactual estimate that if 'adding in Merrin' came last in the permutation and after everyone else had already decided their contributions, the patient's survival logodds thereby went up by .4 bits.  In the end that was zero to zero, but in terms of probabilities before the fact it was 15% to 20%.  A lot of the apparent-logodds-of-success that it was possible to seize at all lay at stake in those first 30 minutes of stabilization, before it was possible to get anyone else on scene who could have run all the emergency equipment simultaneously, and having five differently-certed oppers trying to coordinate those machines would have in the market-grounded-counterfactual-model been a substantial expected loss.  Having one person learning the patient's particular realtime-procedural-skill details for twelve hours straight wasn't negligible either.  If the larger system of the world had worked out earlier that you could do that, you could have been at Default earlier and done that for other patients.  They'd have been less well-paying cases than today's, but your earnings prior to today would have been substantially greater if that career offer had been made you and you had accepted it."

"The ominous supervillain lecture surrounding these relatively straightforward counterfacts is, shall we say, a choice of particular slant and emphasis to put on those counterfacts, and not everyone would find Catchall's slant useful.  I didn't."

"There was indeed a formal market-anchored-nonmarket-counterfactual estimate that if 'adding in Merrin' came last in the permutation and after everyone else had already decided their contributions, the patient's survival logodds thereby went up by .4 bits.  In the end that was zero to zero, but in terms of probabilities before the fact it was 15% to 20%."

"A lot of the apparent-logodds-of-success that it was possible to seize at all lay at stake in those first 30 minutes of stabilization, before it was possible to get anyone else on scene who could have run all the emergency equipment simultaneously.  Having five differently-certed oppers trying to coordinate those machines would have in the market-grounded-counterfactual-model been a substantial expected loss.  That was most of your irreplaceability, but one person learning the patient's particular realtime-procedural-skill details for twelve hours straight wasn't negligible either."

"If the larger system of the world had worked out earlier that you could do that, you could have been at Default earlier and done that for other patients.  They'd have been less well-paying cases than today's, but your earnings prior to today would have been substantially greater, if that career offer had been made you and you had accepted it."

"The ominous supervillain lecture surrounding these relatively straightforward counterfacts is, shall we say, a choice of particular slant and emphasis to put on those counterfacts.  Not everyone would find Catchall's slant useful.  I didn't."