Chances would have been 5% lower without Merrin, but they would have been lower subtracting a lot of other people too, like the Venture Capitalist or the woman who spotted a body in a river. In the possible permuted orderings, call Merrin something like 15% responsible for saving 5% of the life of somebody who would then have had a 1/4 chance of doing something worth the lifetime incomes of 200 people to Civilization. She would have gotten significantly more if he'd lived, less since he small-d died, because it's important to align the very last incentives of people who might know a little more than everything the prediction markets can observe.
Let's say it's about half as much money as Merrin was expecting to earn over the course of the rest of her life.