In a market this liquid, you can see probabilities on individual events coming in, conditional values for what will then be true about the Patient given that.  This won't be the first time or the 20th time that Merrin has tracked a prediction market to see how it plays out; but it might be the first time she's ever, outside of sims, maybe even in sims, had this much market information.  Enough to see the shape of probable market curves and gambles before they happen.

There's now substantial biological activity in the brain's neurons, as they rewarm, and they're about to get the first readouts on post-rewarming-that-much signs of metabolic damage, neural cell death, as it becomes visible in blood leaving the brain.  They're using pretty sensitive readouts but even so they cannot afford to draw that blood very often.

Signs of neural cell death are what ought to be observed if the protocol is not really working all that great.  The market mostly expected the protocol to not really work all that great.  They're sticking a hundred fingers into a dam they believe to have a hundred holes, and while one or two holes untheorized or unplugged won't break that dam, 10% of the fingers failing will do it.

In terms of the market game, the dath ilani child is about to gamble on a 3/4 chance of dropping the odds from 23% to 11%, balanced by a 1/4 chance of raising them from 23% to 59%.  Or at least, that's what the market thinks the market will do.  Sometimes the market is wrong about that.

In a market this liquid, you can see probabilities on individual events coming in, conditional values for what will then be true about the Patient given that.  This won't be the first time or the 20th time that Merrin has tracked a prediction market to see how it plays out; but it might be the first time she's ever, outside of sims, maybe even in sims, had this much market information.  Enough to see the shape of probable market curves and gambles before they happen.

There's now substantial biological activity in the brain's neurons, as they rewarm, and they're about to get the first readouts on post-rewarming-that-much signs of metabolic damage, neural cell death, as it becomes visible in blood leaving the brain.  They're using pretty sensitive readouts but even so they cannot afford to steal the patient's blood for tests that often.

Signs of neural cell death are what ought to be observed if the protocol is not really working all that great.  The market mostly expected the protocol to not really work all that great.  They're sticking a hundred fingers into a dam they believe to have a hundred holes, and while one or two holes untheorized or unplugged won't break that dam, 10% of the fingers failing will do it.

In terms of the market game, the dath ilani child is about to gamble on a 3/4 chance of dropping the odds from 23% to 11%, balanced by a 1/4 chance of raising them from 23% to 59%.  Or at least, that's what the market thinks the market will do.  Sometimes the market is wrong about that.

In a market this liquid, you can see probabilities on individual events coming in, conditional values for what will then be true about the Patient given that.  This won't be the first time or the 20th time that Merrin has tracked a prediction market to see how it plays out; but it might be the first time she's ever, outside of sims, maybe even in sims, had this much market information.  Enough to see the shape of probable market curves and gambles before they happen.

There's now substantial biological activity in the brain's neurons, as they rewarm, and they're about to get the first readouts on post-rewarming-that-much signs of metabolic damage, neural cell death, as it becomes visible in blood leaving the brain.  They're using pretty sensitive readouts but even so they cannot afford to steal the patient's blood for tests that often.

Signs of neural cell death are what ought to be observed if the protocol is not really working all that great.  The market mostly expected the protocol to not really work all that great.  They're sticking a hundred fingers into a dam they believe to have a hundred holes, and while one or two holes untheorized or unplugged won't break that dam, 10% of the fingers failing will do it.

In terms of the market game, the dath ilani child is about to gamble on a 3/4 chance of dropping the odds from 24% to 11%, balanced by a 1/4 chance of raising them from 24% to 63%.  Or at least, that's what the market thinks the market will do.  Sometimes the market is wrong about that.

In a market this liquid, you can see probabilities on individual events coming in, conditional values for what will then be true about the Patient given that.  This won't be the first time or the 20th time that Merrin has tracked a prediction market to see how it plays out; but it might be the first time she's ever, outside of sims, maybe even in sims, had this much market information.  Enough to see the balanced shape of possible market movements before they happen.

There's now substantial biological activity in the brain's neurons, as they rewarm, and they're about to get the first readouts on post-rewarming-that-much signs of metabolic damage, neural cell death, as it becomes visible in blood leaving the brain.  They're using pretty sensitive readouts but even so they cannot afford to steal the patient's blood for tests that often.

Signs of neural cell death are what ought to be observed if the protocol is not really working all that great.  The market mostly expected the protocol to not really work all that great.  They're sticking a hundred fingers into a dam they believe to have a hundred holes, and while one or two holes untheorized or unplugged won't break that dam, 10% of the fingers failing will do it.

In terms of the market game, the dath ilani child is about to gamble on a 3/4 chance of dropping the odds from 24% to 11%, balanced by a 1/4 chance of raising them from 24% to 63%.  Or at least, that's what the market thinks the market will do.  Sometimes the market is wrong about that.

In a market this liquid, you can see probabilities on individual events coming in, conditional values for what will then be true about the Patient given that.  This won't be the first time or the 20th time that Merrin has tracked a prediction market to see how it plays out; but it might be the first time she's ever, outside of sims, maybe even in sims, had this much market information.  Enough to see the balanced shape of possible market movements before they happen.

There's now substantial biological activity in the brain's neurons, as they rewarm, and they're about to get the first readouts on post-rewarming-that-much signs of metabolic damage, neural cell death, as it becomes visible in blood leaving the brain.  They're using pretty sensitive readouts but even so they cannot afford to steal the patient's blood for tests that often.

Signs of neural cell death are what ought to be observed if the protocol is not really working all that great.  The market mostly expected the protocol to not really work all that great.  They're sticking a hundred fingers into a dam they believe to have a hundred holes, and while one or two holes untheorized or unplugged won't break that dam, 10% of the fingers failing will do it.

In terms of the market game, to simplify a complicated spread of possibilities... roughly, the dath ilani child is about to gamble on a 3/4 chance of dropping the odds from 24% to 11%, balanced by a 1/4 chance of raising them from 24% to 63%.  Or at least, that's what the market thinks the market will do.  Sometimes the market is wrong about that.