There's a simple game you can play to simulate a correctly functioning prediction market:  Start with a number like 20%, and then, pick any possible balanced shift you like.  There could be a 1/3 chance of it going down by 4% and a 2/3 chance of it going up by 2%.  (Absolute shifts, additive shifts, not multipliers.)  Don't introduce any potential shifts that would go below 0% or above 100%.  If the number reaches 0% or 100% the game is over.

In dath ilan, playing a game like that, they'd use a quantum randomness generator, just to be sure to emphasize how it did go different ways in different worlds.

Let's try to pick up that 2/3 chance of a 2% upward shift, shall we?  It's probably going to happen.  Odds are probably going to look a bit better.  Or they could drop by 4% instead, but that probably won't happen.

Isn't it exciting?  You could almost imagine, that by picking the right balances, the right die-rolls to make, you could possibly shift the probability of the outcome in any way.  Little dath ilani children play the game until they realize that they can't.  It's their first introduction to predictive asset markets as random walks, which is how markets are experienced by anyone who doesn't know something that few or no others in the market know.

Let the dice roll.

22%.

There's a simple game you can play to simulate a correctly functioning prediction market:  Start with a number like 20%, and then, pick any possible balanced shift you like.  There could be a 1/3 chance of it going down by 4% and a 2/3 chance of it going up by 2%.  (Absolute shifts, additive shifts, not multipliers.)  Don't introduce any potential shifts that would go below 0% or above 100%.  If the number reaches 0% or 100% the game is over.

In dath ilan, playing a game like that, they'd use a quantum randomness generator, just to be sure to emphasize how it did go different ways in different worlds.

Let's try to pick up that 2/3 chance of a 2% upward shift, shall we?  It's probably going to happen.  Odds are probably going to look a bit better.  Or they could drop by 4% instead, but that probably won't happen.

Isn't it exciting?  You could almost imagine that, by picking the right balances, the right die-rolls to make, you could possibly shift the probability of the outcome in any way.  Little dath ilani children play the game until they realize that they can't.  It's their first introduction to predictive asset markets as random walks, which is how markets are experienced by anyone who doesn't know something that few or no others in the market know.

Let the dice roll.

22%.