Prediction markets do not shift in response to what happens; prediction markets shift in response to what becomes known, possibilities as they are eliminated by observation.  The initial drop from 20% to 18% wasn't in response to any unexpected medical event occurring; it was in response to everything going as initially expected.  People were working hard on this, pursuing profit, Exception Handling was playing some unusual cards not all of which might be visible; it could have been the case that things would go mysteriously well for the patient and Exception Handling would say 'wow what a coincidence'.  Some of the bettors in the market have noticed the improbable emergency medic guised as a Sparashki, which could be a distraction from any number of realities, and her 12-hour shift; Exception Handling claims that this was a total coincidence, but they're saying it under social circumstances where it's known and understood that they might lie.

Nothing really amazing happened when the human-untested protocol went into play, as the market traders did still mostly expect, and the market dropped from 20% to 18%.

Prediction markets do not shift in response to what happens; prediction markets shift in response to what becomes known, possibilities as they are eliminated by observation.  The initial drop from 20% to 18% wasn't in response to any unexpected medical event occurring; it was in response to everything going as initially expected.  People were working hard on this, pursuing profit, Exception Handling was playing some unusual cards not all of which might be visible; it could have been the case that the protocol would be mysteriously polished and smooth and everything would go great right from the start, and Exception Handling would say 'wow what a coincidence'.  Some of the bettors in the market have noticed the improbable emergency medic guised as a Sparashki, which could be a distraction from any number of realities, and her 12-hour shift; Exception Handling claims that this was a total coincidence, but they're saying it under social circumstances where it's known and understood that they might lie.

Nothing really amazing happened when the human-untested protocol went into play, as the market traders did still mostly expect, and the market dropped from 20% to 18%.

Prediction markets do not shift in response to what happens; prediction markets shift in response to what becomes known, possibilities as they are eliminated by observation.  The initial drop from 20% to 18% wasn't in response to any unexpected medical event occurring; it was in response to everything going as initially expected.

On one side, people were working hard on this, pursuing profit, Exception Handling was playing some unusual cards not all of which might be visible; it could have been the case that the protocol would be mysteriously polished and smooth and everything would go great right from the start, and Exception Handling would say 'wow what a coincidence'.  Some of the bettors in the market have noticed the improbable emergency medic guised as a Sparashki, which could be a distraction from any number of realities, and her 12-hour shift; Exception Handling claims that this was a total coincidence, but they're saying it under social circumstances where it's known and understood that they might lie.

And on the other side, the patient was fairly stabilized going in, and might've just continued being that stable as rewarming started.  It wasn't the most likely event to observe, but it was a going possibility.

Nothing really amazing happened when the human-untested protocol went into play, as the market traders did still mostly expect; and the patient responded as modally expected and not in any way showing that they were healthier or more robust than hoped; and so the market dropped from 20% to 18%.

Prediction markets do not shift in response to what happens; prediction markets shift in response to what becomes known, possibilities as they are eliminated by observation.  The initial drop from 20% to 18% wasn't in response to any unexpected medical event occurring; it was in response to everything going as initially expected.

On one side, people were working hard on this, pursuing profit, Exception Handling was playing some unusual cards not all of which might be visible; it could have been the case that the protocol would be mysteriously polished and smooth and everything would go great right from the start, and Exception Handling would say 'wow what a coincidence'.  Some of the bettors in the market have noticed the improbable emergency medic guised as a Sparashki, which could be a distraction from any number of realities, and her 12-hour shift; Exception Handling claims that this was a total coincidence, but they're saying it under social circumstances where it's known and understood that they might lie.

And on the other side, the patient was fairly stabilized going in, and might've just continued being that stable as rewarming started.  It wasn't the most likely event to observe, but it was a going possibility.

Nothing really amazing happened when the human-untested protocol went into play, as the market traders did still mostly expect; and the patient responded as modally expected and not in any way showing that they were healthier or more robust than that; and so the market dropped from 20% to 18%.  It's not just the impact of the momentary event being observed, it's traders following the trend of all the future observations that you could guess would go the same way, the moment you got the first hints.  Maybe they'll have to walk back some of those guesses later.  That's not embarrassing, that's how things should be; if you never had to walk back a leap, you wouldn't be leaping far enough.

Prediction markets do not shift in response to what happens; prediction markets shift in response to what becomes known, possibilities as they are eliminated by observation.  The initial drop from 20% to 18% wasn't in response to any unexpected medical event occurring; it was in response to everything going as initially expected.

On one side, people were working hard on this, pursuing profit, Exception Handling was playing some unusual cards not all of which might be visible; it could have been the case that the protocol would be mysteriously polished and smooth and everything would go great right from the start, and Exception Handling would say 'wow what a coincidence'.  Some of the bettors in the market have noticed the improbable emergency medic guised as a Sparashki, which could be a distraction from any number of realities, and her 12-hour shift; Exception Handling claims that this was a total coincidence, but they're saying it under social circumstances where it's known and understood that they might lie.

And on the other side, the patient was fairly stabilized going in, and might've just continued being that stable as rewarming started.  It wasn't the most likely event to observe, but it was a going possibility.

Nothing really amazing happened when the human-untested protocol went into play, as the market traders did still mostly expect; and the patient responded as modally expected and not in any way showing that they were healthier or more robust than that; and so the market dropped from 20% to 18%.

It's not just the impact of the momentary event being observed, it's traders following the trend of all the future observations that you could guess would go the same way, the moment you got the first hints.  Maybe they'll have to walk back some of those guesses later.  That's not embarrassing, that's how things should be; if you never had to walk back a leap, you wouldn't be leaping far enough.