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Version: 1
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Policy markets:  Current top success-probability is if they don't rewarm the patient at all, right now.  Explanation-summary: it preserves option-value if anybody digs up a further injury that'd potentially occur on unguarded rewarming of the patient's brain from 20C-cold to a more standard 28C-cold.

The market's success probability dips suddenly even as Merrin watches, some unknown trading entity placing a more pessimistic bet, but doesn't drop to the point where it goes underneath the success probability if they start rewarming the patient to a higher cold temperature right now.

...the markets haven't actually updated yet with a protocol telling her how to semi-stabilize a patient at this temperature, but presumably that will be on the way very soon?

Version: 2
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Updated
Content

Policy markets:  Current top success-probability is if they don't rewarm the patient at all, right now.  Explanation-summary: it preserves option-value if anybody digs up a further injury that'd potentially occur on unguarded rewarming of the patient's brain from 20C-cold to a more standard 28C-cold.

That policy's success probability dips suddenly even as Merrin watches, some unknown trading entity placing a more pessimistic bet, but doesn't drop to the point where it goes underneath the success probability if they start rewarming the patient to a higher cold temperature right now.

...the markets haven't actually updated yet with a protocol telling her how to semi-stabilize a patient at this temperature, but presumably that will be on the way very soon?