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First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the person who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, if she takes that compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of seeing it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Version: 2
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First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the person who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of seeing it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Version: 3
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First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things, back then, after Lrilatha's demonstration - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the Carissa who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of seeing it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Version: 4
Fields Changed Content
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Content

First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things, back then, after Lrilatha's demonstration - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the Carissa who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of seeing it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Well, among his options if he ends up uncertain are to request a compact like that with Lrilatha, and see if she's mysteriously in Hell and can't get back until tomorrow...

Version: 5
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First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things, back then, after Lrilatha's demonstration - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the Carissa who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of seeing it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Well, among his options if he ends up uncertain are to request a paid truth-else-silence compact with Lrilatha, and see if she's mysteriously in Hell and can't get back until tomorrow...

Version: 6
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Content

First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things, back then, after Lrilatha's demonstration - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the Carissa who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of see it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Well, among his options if he ends up uncertain are to request a paid truth-else-silence compact with Lrilatha, and see if she's mysteriously in Hell and can't get back until tomorrow...

Version: 7
Fields Changed Content
Updated
Content

First, because it sure would be tragic to arrive at a grim conclusion by mistake -

Actually, no, that would not be too tragic, not unless it leads him to do something disastrous - which - there's things he can do, that one would not think would be disastrous, rechecking conclusions under mental enhancement for example -

- anyways, to be balanced, he's supposed to also list out the things that weigh against Conspiracy.


Most prominently among them:

Why didn't they just cast Suggestion on him?

...

- because people develop resistance with repeated exposure
- because it in fact only lasts a few minutes rather than hours, and Lrilatha or whoever would literally run out of spells
- because people affected by it are stupider about related subjects, in a way that would've affected Keltham's useful spellsilver research ability

It's evidence, strong evidence even, but not infinitely strong.

It would've just felt - like if he'd said any of those things, back then, after Lrilatha's demonstration - that it would've been like, he was trapped forever in maybe-Conspiracy, immune to all evidence, and unable to be happy with the Carissa who apparently loved him.

Peranza said that she realized she wasn't happy and wanted to go to Hell.  A very ordinary thing to happen in Ordinary.  In Conspiracy there'd have to be - some reason to pull Peranza, who isn't in Hell at all now - well, there could be a reason Keltham doesn't know, why Conspiracy would do that.  But it stands out as something that feels more probable in Ordinary than in Conspiracy, pointing to something else that has to be true in Conspiracy, if the first part is true.  Actually you could say the same about Korva breaking down in tears; that's strange in Ordinary but it's even stranger in Conspiracy.


If they're just lying to him about everything, why haven't - Keltham is having trouble figuring out how to pin down the exact discongruity here.  Why not have Lrilatha swear an oath to him that there's no Conspiracy?  Okay, maybe Lrilatha didn't do that because it would directly stake her credibility against Conspiracy's credibility, highlight in his attention that in Conspiracy worlds the oaths also aren't real.

Cheliax negotiated with him and had some weird asks in the Project contract, if they're just planning to steal from him, like the clause about two-thirds of Chelish profits going into a Cheliax-only investment fund, that Keltham negotiated down to half.  That made him slightly suspicious, and doesn't gain them anything if they're planning to steal everything anyways, so why include that if the Conspiracy just lying about everything?  Because there had to be some weird pushy asks or it would have felt suspicious to Keltham, if 'Cheliax' had just given way on all his asks immediately?

...Carissa did say very early on that Asmodeus's domain includes compacts.  Carissa talked about there being a 'Lawful' alignment axis very early on, and gods and afterlives falling on those axes.

Maybe Keltham can offer to pay Lrilatha 1000gp for ten minutes during which she either gives true answers to his questions, or says nothing, and then she actually does have to follow through, or refuse the compact.

...why wouldn't they just use an illusionary Lrilatha?  Or is that also not allowed?  Keltham can - sort of see it being not allowed - on some plausible background assumptions about how Lawfulness and Lawful gods work.

Well, among his options if he ends up uncertain are to request a paid truth-else-silence compact with Lrilatha, and see if she's mysteriously in Hell and can't get back until tomorrow...