Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and then deprive of him of his rightful profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person planning to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  The Queen is in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for younger and more sensitive viewers.

Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and then deprive of him of his rightful profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person planning to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  The Queen is in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for insufficiently perverted readers.

Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and then deprive of him of his rightful profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person planning to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  In other cases it's just entirely a set of hidden officials running the whole thing.  The Queen is always in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for insufficiently perverted readers.

Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and turn him into a captive if he ever tries to leave and obviously never pay him his real profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person on-site working to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  In other cases it's just entirely a set of hidden officials running the whole thing.  The Queen is always in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  In some cases there's no such god as Asmodeus.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for insufficiently perverted readers.

Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and turn him into a captive if he ever tries to leave and obviously never pay him his real profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person on-site working to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  In other cases it's just entirely a set of hidden officials running the whole thing.  The Queen is always in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  In some cases there's no such god as Asmodeus.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for insufficiently perverted readers.

Ione first wrote what he asked for, a hypothetical-best-guess mostly similar to that of the others; and then wrote three other versions: the first about how 'Golarion' mostly borders the Worldwound thereby explaining away the coincidence of Keltham's arrival there; the second about how Keltham never really left dath ilan; and the third of which is a single sentence, 'Keltham is still inside the mirror takaral'.  Ione's postscript notes that she's a Nethysian and doesn't want to obey rules all the time.

Carissa's answer checks out, about rational agents with common priors and common knowledge of each other's probabilities having the same probabilities.  It's actually pretty clever, instead of coming up with the obvious formalism on infinite epistemic states over infinite propositions, Carissa did this whole finitary thing with partitions of possible worlds, each of which included facts about which partition of worlds the agents inside those worlds thought they were inside; and just arbitrarily declared that not all possible subsets of worlds were possible epistemic states to avoid putting a powerset of a set inside itself.  There's some rather questionable claims afterwards about how real people should aspire to behave more like that, but they're very Carissa-characteristic claims, at least.

Asmodia's answer checks out, about the standard central distribution being the maximum-entropy infinite distribution with mean 0 and deviation 1.  She proved it in a complicated way involving constraint multipliers, but she proved it, and went on to correctly note that adding up lots of different independent variables will tend to preserve the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, while throwing away most other information, such that the sum of lots of independent variables will tend towards the maximum-entropy distribution with the sum of their means and the sum of their variances, aka the central distribution.

The rest of Project Lawful... wrote up a lot of different versions of the Conspiracy, almost all of which are planning to milk Keltham for his knowledge and turn him into a captive if he ever tries to leave and obviously never pay him his real profits, but which are planning to do that in different ways.  In most stories Carissa is the chief field agent, senior to Asmodia who is the chief person on-site working to keep everything consistent, both of them ultimately reporting to a widely varying set of Crown officers none of whom Keltham has ever heard about.  In other cases it's just entirely a set of hidden officials running the whole thing.  The Queen is always in on it.  The Church of Asmodeus doesn't have nearly the claimed involvement, isn't actually powerful in Cheliax, and none of the purported priests of Asmodeus actually works for him.  In some cases there's no such god as Asmodeus.  Other details vary widely.  Shilira's version of the Conspiracy is not suitable for insufficiently perverted readers.

Ione first wrote what he asked for, a hypothetical-best-guess mostly similar to that of the others; and then wrote three other versions: the first about how 'Golarion' mostly borders the Worldwound thereby explaining away the coincidence of Keltham's arrival there; the second about how Keltham never really left dath ilan; and the third of which is a single sentence, 'Keltham is still inside the mirror takaral'.  Ione's postscript notes that she's a Nethysian and doesn't want to obey rules all the time.