Unfortunately for anybody who didn't want to think about probabilities, Asmodia has now realized something else they like totally forgot to do today!  They should have been running a prediction market and a conditional prediction market this whole time!

So now Asmodia is setting up a quick prediction market about the chance that the primary deception around Keltham remains unshattered, and a secondary conditional prediction market about the chances that different versions of the backup escape plan work, conditional on those becoming necessary.

Asmodia's opening bid is 80% that the primary deception shatters.

Keltham just has too much information, is Asmodia's guess, his thoughts about the Conspiracy were starting to track too closely to what was actually going on around him.  He's not limited to the information from today, he also has evidence from when the Conspiracy was younger and less practiced.  They don't just have to quell his doubts; they have to quell his doubts far enough that Keltham decides not to try an Owl's Wisdom, and then, Asmodia is thinking, taps himself with Fox's Cunning once the Owl's Wisdom makes him realize that's the wise thing to do.

(Keltham has by now had a chance to demonstrate to Asmodia that some of her probabilities were a tad overconfident; Asmodia's intuitive guess was 90%, and would have been 95% without that demonstration and some amount of correction-of-intuition.  80% is her weaker second-order probability after trying to compensate for her remaining intuitive overconfidence.)

So 80%.  Any bidders?

And Asmodia is basically not betting that the main unfixed version of the backup escape plan works, she'll buy anything over 10% on that, if there's any bidders; but she would maybe bid like 5% or 10% on a plan working if it involves at least Ione and Asmodia and Carissa in anti-magic handcuffs.

Unfortunately for anybody who didn't want to think about probabilities, Asmodia has now realized something else they like totally forgot to do today!  They should have been running a prediction market and a conditional prediction market this whole time!

So now Asmodia is setting up a quick prediction market about the chance that the primary deception around Keltham remains unshattered, and a secondary conditional prediction market about the chances that different versions of the backup escape plan work, conditional on those becoming necessary.

Asmodia's opening bid is 80% that the primary deception shatters before tonight / before they can turn Keltham into a statue for a year, with the second condition winning if there's a difference between them.

Keltham just has too much information, is Asmodia's guess, his thoughts about the Conspiracy were starting to track too closely to what was actually going on around him.  He's not limited to the information from today, he also has evidence from when the Conspiracy was younger and less practiced.  They don't just have to quell his doubts; they have to quell his doubts far enough that Keltham decides not to try an Owl's Wisdom, and then, Asmodia is thinking, taps himself with Fox's Cunning once the Owl's Wisdom makes him realize that's the wise thing to do.

(Keltham has by now had a chance to demonstrate to Asmodia that some of her probabilities were a tad overconfident; Asmodia's intuitive guess was 90%, and would have been 95% without that demonstration and some amount of correction-of-intuition.  80% is her weaker second-order probability after trying to compensate for her remaining intuitive overconfidence.)

So 80%.  Any bidders?

And Asmodia is basically not betting that the main unfixed version of the backup escape plan works, she'll buy anything over 10% on that, if there's any bidders; but she would maybe bid like 5% or 10% on a plan working if it involves at least Ione and Asmodia and Carissa in anti-magic handcuffs.

Unfortunately for anybody who didn't want to think about probabilities, Asmodia has now realized something else they like totally forgot to do today!  They should have been running a prediction market and a conditional prediction market this whole time!

So now Asmodia is setting up a quick prediction market about the chance that the primary deception around Keltham shatters, and a secondary conditional prediction market about the chances that different versions of the backup escape plan work, conditional on those becoming necessary.

Asmodia's opening bid is 80% that the primary deception shatters before tonight / before they can turn Keltham into a statue for a year, with the second condition winning if there's a difference between them.

Keltham just has too much information, is Asmodia's guess, his thoughts about the Conspiracy were starting to track too closely to what was actually going on around him.  He's not limited to the information from today, he also has evidence from when the Conspiracy was younger and less practiced.  They don't just have to quell his doubts; they have to quell his doubts far enough that Keltham decides not to try an Owl's Wisdom, and then, Asmodia is thinking, taps himself with Fox's Cunning once the Owl's Wisdom makes him realize that's the wise thing to do.

(Keltham has by now had a chance to demonstrate to Asmodia that some of her probabilities were a tad overconfident; Asmodia's intuitive guess was 90%, and would have been 95% without that demonstration and some amount of correction-of-intuition.  80% is her weaker second-order probability after trying to compensate for her remaining intuitive overconfidence.)

So 80%.  Any bidders?

And Asmodia is basically not betting that the main unfixed version of the backup escape plan works, she'll buy anything over 10% on that, if there's any bidders; but she would maybe bid like 5% or 10% on a plan working if it involves at least Ione and Asmodia and Carissa in anti-magic handcuffs.

Unfortunately for anybody who didn't want to think about probabilities, Asmodia has now realized something else they like totally forgot to do today!  They should have been running a prediction market and a conditional prediction market this whole time!

So now Asmodia is setting up a quick prediction market about the chance that the primary deception around Keltham shatters, and a secondary conditional prediction market about the chances that different versions of the backup escape plan work, further-conditional on those becoming necessary.

Asmodia's opening bid is 80% that the primary deception shatters before tonight / before they can turn Keltham into a statue for a year, with the second condition winning if there's a difference between them.

Keltham just has too much information, is Asmodia's guess, his thoughts about the Conspiracy were starting to track too closely to what was actually going on around him.  He's not limited to the information from today, he also has evidence from when the Conspiracy was younger and less practiced.  They don't just have to quell his doubts; they have to quell his doubts far enough that Keltham decides not to try an Owl's Wisdom, and then, Asmodia is thinking, taps himself with Fox's Cunning once the Owl's Wisdom makes him realize that's the wise thing to do.

(Keltham has by now had a chance to demonstrate to Asmodia that some of her probabilities were a tad overconfident; Asmodia's intuitive guess was 90%, and would have been 95% without that demonstration and some amount of correction-of-intuition.  80% is her weaker second-order probability after trying to compensate for her remaining intuitive overconfidence.)

So 80%.  Any bidders?

And Asmodia is basically not betting that the main unfixed version of the backup escape plan works, she'll sell anything over 10% on that, if there's any bidders; but she would maybe bid like 5% or 10% on a plan working if it involves at least Ione and Asmodia and Carissa in anti-magic handcuffs.