...what, is the Conspiracy supposed to think that we should now resolve this battle fairly, determining in a Lawful way who won the contest, by iterating through all the events of the day, multiplying together the likelihood ratios we assigned at the time, multiplying by whatever prior we previously assigned, and coming to a decision on that basis?
At least Conspiracy Asmodia has to know better than that. Or Conspiracy Carissa. It's not like we haven't told them that the rule even for small cases is to make up a prior and a likelihood ratio, multiply them together to get a posterior, and then throw that number out and go with your intuitive feeling once you've forced your brain to actually ask all of the correct questions intuitively.
And this is a huge case, involving a huge number of conditional dependencies between all of the things going on. You can't just take the likelihoods your busy brain was making up without keeping running track of how the most likely Conspiracy and Ordinary universes were shifting with each update, and multiply all of those likelihoods together. They know that too.
Finally, if there's an actual Conspiracy on the other side of this, we are absolutely not supposed to be having a fair fight with them. We should just boost Wisdom and possibly also Cunning, try to focus just on this one issue, and then if that starts to go wrong quickly drop out of the Rope Trick and ask for an emergency Dispel.