It's not predictable to him!  Most of Keltham's update will happen at the point where he thinks of how convenient it is for the Conspiracy that the bookshop doesn't already carry erotic fiction.  Then Keltham tries to think of ways to check on things quickly, and tries to find an erotic bookshop that's large enough to have more submissive-viewpoint erotic novels than he thinks the Conspiracy could write.  Keltham isn't expecting to be able to find a bookshop like that quickly, and Lord Fennelosa won't be able to.  Since Keltham was expecting that result, he doesn't update much on it.  That leaves Keltham with mostly the same probability he got after he realized the Conspiracy's reason for saying that bookshops don't carry pornography.

Keltham won't think of looking for brothels that cater to male masochists without you suggesting that, and if you do suggest that, he'll think it's something the Conspiracy could illusion or send somebody ahead to mind-control people about.  Or bribe them, now that Keltham actually realizes that Golarion employees will take bribes.

It's not predictable to him!  Most of Keltham's update will happen at the point where he thinks of how convenient it is for the Conspiracy that the bookshop doesn't already carry erotic fiction.  Then Keltham tries to think of ways to check on things quickly, and tries to find an erotic bookshop that's large enough to have more submissive-viewpoint erotic novels than he thinks the Conspiracy would have prepared.  Keltham isn't expecting to be able to find a bookshop like that quickly, and Lord Fennelosa won't be able to.  Since Keltham was expecting that result, he doesn't update much on it.  That leaves Keltham with mostly the same probability he got after he realized the Conspiracy's reason for saying that bookshops don't carry pornography.

Keltham won't think of looking for brothels that cater to male masochists without you suggesting that, and if you do suggest that, he'll think it's something the Conspiracy could illusion or send somebody ahead to mind-control people about.  Or bribe them, now that Keltham actually realizes that Golarion employees will take bribes.

It's not predictable to him!  Most of Keltham's update will happen at the point where he thinks of how convenient it is for the Conspiracy that the bookshop doesn't already carry erotic fiction.  Then Keltham tries to think of ways to check on things quickly, and later tries to find an erotic bookshop that's large enough to have more submissive-viewpoint erotic novels than he thinks the Conspiracy would have prepared.  Keltham isn't expecting to be able to find a bookshop like that quickly, and Lord Fennelosa won't be able to.  Since Keltham was expecting that result even in the Ordinary world, he doesn't update much on it.  That leaves Keltham with mostly the same probability he got after he realized the Conspiracy's reason for saying that bookshops don't carry pornography.

Keltham won't think of looking for brothels that cater to male masochists without you suggesting that, and if you do suggest that, he'll think it's something the Conspiracy could illusion or send somebody ahead to mind-control people about.  Or bribe them, now that Keltham has seen that Golarion employees will take bribes.