"I think dath ilan would run a prediction market. Which we're doing, but it didn't predict Pilar.

 I think - the thing that goes wrong, in broad terms, is that someone realizes they were lying to themselves about wanting to serve Asmodeus and go to Hell, and then ideally they immediately realize that even though they don't want to do that they prefer it to their alternative of not serving Asmodeus and still going to Hell, and that they don't have some incredibly convenient third alternative.

And in unlucky cases - they instead think they do have a way out, and they try it. They think 'if I kill myself I bet Osirion will resurrect me, or Hell destroy me to prevent that'. Or they try to warn Keltham, or try to warn Iomedae...

Or they'd built their entire motivational system off their belief they wanted to serve Asmodeus and 'I don't want to, I just don't have a choice' doesn't sustain that.

So you'd think you could screen for whether someone's lying to themselves about that, except I don't - know how obvious it is, even if you're reading their mind. Or you could try to trigger it in them on purpose before they get anywhere near the project, break everyone up front, except maybe there are further things like this which we haven't run into..."

"I think dath ilan would run a prediction market. Which we're doing, but it didn't predict Pilar.

 I think - the thing that goes wrong, in broad terms, is that someone realizes they were lying to themselves about wanting to serve Asmodeus and go to Hell, and then ideally they immediately realize that even though they don't want to do that they prefer it to their alternative of not serving Asmodeus and still going to Hell, and that they don't have some incredibly convenient third alternative.

And in unlucky cases - they instead think they do have a way out, and they try it. They think 'if I kill myself I bet Osirion will resurrect me, or Hell destroy me to prevent that'. Or they try to warn Keltham, or try to warn Abadar...

Or they'd built their entire motivational system off their belief they wanted to serve Asmodeus and 'I don't want to, I just don't have a choice' doesn't sustain that.

So you'd think you could screen for whether someone's lying to themselves about that, except I don't - know how obvious it is, even if you're reading their mind. Or you could try to trigger it in them on purpose before they get anywhere near the project, break everyone up front, except maybe there are further things like this which we haven't run into..."

"I think dath ilan would run a prediction market. Which we're doing, but it didn't predict Pilar.

 I think - the thing that goes wrong, in broad terms, is that someone realizes they were lying to themselves about wanting to serve Asmodeus and go to Hell, and then ideally they immediately realize that even though they don't want to do that they prefer it to their alternative of not serving Asmodeus and still going to Hell, and that they don't have some incredibly convenient third alternative.

And in unlucky cases - they instead think they do have a way out, and they try it. They think 'if I kill myself I bet Osirion will resurrect me, or Hell destroy me to prevent that'. Or they try to warn Keltham, or try to bargain with Abadar...

Or they'd built their entire motivational system off their belief they wanted to serve Asmodeus and 'I don't want to, I just don't have a choice' doesn't sustain that.

So you'd think you could screen for whether someone's lying to themselves about that, except I don't - know how obvious it is, even if you're reading their mind. Or you could try to trigger it in them on purpose before they get anywhere near the project, break everyone up front, except maybe there are further things like this which we haven't run into..."