Did Asmodia always have that strange thing in her, that the median dath ilani possesses?  Did she have it before Otolmens touched her?  Did she have it before her hour-long epiphany wearing an artifact headband?

Whatever that strange quality is, Asmodia has it now.

And if she is not a dath ilani yet - not any kind of ilani, for being so untrained - she is now recognizably an untrained ilani.

Anyways, Asmodia already thought through all of Keltham's questions earlier, during the Law of Succession lecture.  He'd certainly hinted heavily enough that he was going to ask questions in those directions.  Practically spelled it out, even.

Asmodia writes down all the obvious stuff.  Thinks a bit more.

Writes down some speculations about, well, maybe you could also update the Rule of Succession on the first data-bunch, ask how well it expected to score, and then further-update the Rule on the second data-bunch to see if it scored around that well; and also do the reverse; and if in either case the further-updated Rule scored much more poorly than it expected to score after the first update, that might indicate a problem.

But it's not really a three-hour problem?  Is she missing something?  If she's not missing something, Asmodia is sort of worried about how much Keltham is softballing the new researchers, here.  This seems like really basic and obvious Law of Probability.  What's the catch?

She spends a while staring at her paper, but when Carissa Sevar hands in her own version, Asmodia sort of quietly sighs to herself and hands in her own shortly after.

Did Asmodia always have that strange thing in her, that the median dath ilani possesses?  Did she have it before Otolmens touched her?  Did she have it before her hour-long epiphany wearing an artifact headband?

Whatever that strange quality is, Asmodia has it now, somehow, outside of dath ilan.

And if she is not a dath ilani yet - not any kind of ilani, for being so untrained - she is now recognizably an untrained ilani.

Anyways, Asmodia already thought through all of Keltham's questions earlier, during the Law of Succession lecture.  He'd certainly hinted heavily enough that he was going to ask questions in those directions.  Practically spelled it out, even.

Asmodia writes down all the obvious stuff.  Thinks a bit more.

Writes down some speculations about, well, maybe you could also update the Rule of Succession on the first data-bunch, ask how well it expected to score, and then further-update the Rule on the second data-bunch to see if it scored around that well; and also do the reverse; and if in either case the further-updated Rule scored much more poorly than it expected to score after the first update, that might indicate a problem.

But it's not really a three-hour problem?  Is she missing something?  If she's not missing something, Asmodia is sort of worried about how much Keltham is softballing the new researchers, here.  This seems like really basic and obvious Law of Probability.  What's the catch?

She spends a while staring at her paper, but when Carissa Sevar hands in her own version, Asmodia sort of quietly sighs to herself and hands in her own shortly after.

Did Asmodia always have that strange thing in her, that the median dath ilani possesses?  Did she have it before Otolmens touched her?  Did she have it before her hour-long epiphany wearing an artifact headband?

Whatever that strange quality is, Asmodia has it now, somehow, outside of dath ilan.

And if she is not a dath ilani yet - not any kind of ilani, for being so untrained - she is now recognizably an untrained ilani.

Point being, Asmodia already thought through all of Keltham's questions earlier, during the Law of Succession lecture.  He'd certainly hinted heavily enough that he was going to ask questions in those directions.  Practically spelled it out, even.

Asmodia writes down all the obvious stuff.  Thinks a bit more.

Writes down some speculations about, well, maybe you could also update the Rule of Succession on the first data-bunch, ask how well it expected to score, and then further-update the Rule on the second data-bunch to see if it scored around that well; and also do the reverse; and if in either case the further-updated Rule scored much more poorly than it expected to score after the first update, that might indicate a problem.

But it's not really a three-hour problem?  Is she missing something?  If she's not missing something, Asmodia is sort of worried about how much Keltham is softballing the new researchers, here.  This seems like really basic and obvious Law of Probability.  What's the catch?

She spends a while staring at her paper, but when Carissa Sevar hands in her own version, Asmodia sort of quietly sighs to herself, and hands in her own as Keltham walks out with Sevar.

Did Asmodia always have that strange thing in her, that the median dath ilani possesses?  Did she have it before Otolmens touched her?  Did she have it before her hour-long epiphany wearing an artifact headband?

Whatever that strange quality is, Asmodia has it now, somehow, outside of dath ilan.

And if she is not a dath ilani yet - not any kind of ilani, for being so untrained - she is now recognizably an untrained ilani.

Point being, Asmodia already thought through all of Keltham's questions earlier, during the Law of Succession lecture.  He'd certainly hinted heavily enough that he was going to ask questions in those directions.  Practically spelled it out, even.

Asmodia writes down all the obvious stuff.  Thinks a bit more.

Writes down some speculations about, well, maybe you could also update the Rule of Succession on the first data-bunch, ask how well it expected to score, and then further-update the Rule on the second data-bunch to see if it scored around that well; and also do the reverse; and if in either case the further-updated Rule scored much more poorly than it expected to score after the first update, that might indicate a problem.

But it's not really a three-hour question?  Is she missing something?  If she's not missing something, Asmodia is sort of worried about how much Keltham is softballing the new researchers, here.  This seems like really basic and obvious Law of Probability.  What's the catch?

She spends a while staring at her paper, but when Carissa Sevar hands in her own version, Asmodia sort of quietly sighs to herself, and hands in her own as Keltham walks out with Sevar.