So don't stress out too much over this one test...

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

The whiteboard now reads:

Armed with the Law of Succession, that after N lefts and M rights, the odds of LEFT vs. RIGHT are (N+1) to (M+1):

- Figure out how you would analyze whether Source 1 and Source 2 of LEFTs and RIGHTs had the same propensity p for left-vs-right, or a different propensity.  Assume it's not obvious at a glance.

- Say what an experimentalist out of Civilization would say or not say in their summary of their data.  (It won't be, "I decided these two sources were the same" or "I'm betting these two sources are different.")

- Talk, if you have the time, about a general symptom that might appear - not just in analyses using the Rule of Succession - when two different experimenters end up performing an importantly different experiment-on-reality and end up with two datasets generated by importantly different sources, as might turn up when someone out of Civilization was analyzing their datasets or experimental summaries side-by-side.

- They are welcome to say more, if they have more to say.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

The whiteboard now reads:

Armed with the Law of Succession, that after N lefts and M rights, the odds of LEFT vs. RIGHT are (N+1) to (M+1):

- Figure out how you would analyze whether Source 1 and Source 2 of LEFTs and RIGHTs had the same propensity p for left-vs-right, or different propensities p1 and p2.  Assume it's not obvious at a glance.

- Say what an experimentalist out of Civilization would say or not say in their summary of their data.  (It won't be, "I decided these two sources were the same" or "I'm betting these two sources are different.")

- Talk, if you have the time, about a general symptom that might appear - not just in analyses using the Rule of Succession - when two different experimenters end up performing an importantly different experiment-on-reality and end up with two datasets generated by importantly different sources, as might turn up when someone out of Civilization was analyzing their datasets or experimental summaries side-by-side.

- They are welcome to say more, if they have more to say.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

The whiteboard now reads:

Wielding the Law of Succession, that after N lefts and M rights, the odds of LEFT vs. RIGHT are (N+1) to (M+1):

- Figure out how you would analyze whether Source 1 and Source 2 of LEFTs and RIGHTs had the same propensity p for left-vs-right, or different propensities p1 and p2.  Assume it's not obvious at a glance.

- Say what an experimentalist out of Civilization would say or not say in their summary of their data.  (It won't be, "I decided these two sources were the same" or "I'm betting these two sources are different.")

- Talk, if you have the time, about a general symptom that might appear - not just in analyses using the Rule of Succession - when two different experimenters end up performing an importantly different experiment-on-reality and end up with two datasets generated by importantly different sources, as might turn up when someone out of Civilization was analyzing their datasets or experimental summaries side-by-side.

- They are welcome to say more, if they have more to say.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers didn't end up knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

The whiteboard now reads:

Wielding the Law of Succession, that after N lefts and M rights, the odds of LEFT vs. RIGHT are (N+1) to (M+1):

- Figure out how you would analyze whether Source 1 and Source 2 of LEFTs and RIGHTs had the same propensity p for left-vs-right, or different propensities p1 and p2.  Assume it's not obvious at a glance.

- Say what an experimentalist out of Civilization would say or not say in their summary of their data.  (It won't be, "I decided these two sources were the same" or "I'm betting these two sources are different.")

- Talk, if you have the time, about a general symptom that might appear - not just in analyses using the Rule of Succession - when two different experimenters end up performing an importantly different experiment-on-reality and end up with two datasets generated by importantly different sources, as might turn up when someone out of Civilization was analyzing their datasets or experimental summaries side-by-side.

- You are welcome to say more, if you have more to say.

...is what Keltham would like to say, but yeah, realistically, he knows they're going to stress out about it.  He apologizes for that part.  Last time the researchers ended up not knowing exactly what they were being tested on, and that... was not really a better way of doing things, he doesn't think.

There'll be a predictable two-hour recovery period after lunch, before they start the afternoon's research.

The whiteboard now reads:

Wielding the Law of Succession, that after N lefts and M rights, the odds of LEFT vs. RIGHT are (N+1) to (M+1):

- Figure out how you would analyze whether Source 1 and Source 2 of LEFTs and RIGHTs had the same propensity p for left-vs-right, or different propensities p1 and p2.  Assume it's not obvious at a glance.

- Say what an experimentalist out of Civilization would say or not say in their summary of their data.  (It won't be, "I decided these two sources were the same" or "I'm betting these two sources are different.")

- Talk, if you have the time, about a general symptom that might appear - not just in analyses using the Rule of Succession - when two different experimenters end up performing an importantly different experiment-on-reality and end up with two datasets generated by importantly different sources, as might turn up when someone out of Civilization was analyzing their datasets or experimental summaries side-by-side.

- You are welcome to say more, if you have more to say.