The Rule of Succession!  This is sort of picking up the topic from last time about Science!, how to do statistical inference in cases slightly more complicated than the trivial ones discussed previously.

Suppose Keltham takes a sphere, put it on a table with bouncy boundaries, starts it moving fast, and lets it bounce back and forth many times until it comes to a halt, somewhere random.  Object!Keltham should theoretically be considered as doing this in private, where the object!others can't see him, though for illustration purposes, meta!Keltham will write down everything plainly for people's meta!selves in class.

[--------0---------------------]

Object!Keltham marks down where Ball 0 landed, picks it up, and again rolls it hard.

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Object!Keltham then asks the object!classroom for their odds that Ball 1 landed to the left or the right of Ball 0.  Remember, their meta!selves can see where Keltham made the marks on the whiteboard representing where Ball 0 and Ball 1 landed, but their object!selves can't.

Before being told the answer, what probability should their object!selves assign that Ball 1 landed to the left or right of Ball 0, after both balls bounced back and forth on the table many times?  Their object!selves know the experimental setup, they just don't know the detailed results until object!Keltham tells them. 

The Rule of Succession!  This is sort of picking up the topic from last time about Science!, how to do statistical inference in cases slightly more complicated than the trivial ones discussed previously.  Asmodia has now supposedly had the time to teach the new candidates some additional Law of Probability, aided by Meritxell, people have cast a few Fox's Cunnings on themselves and others.  They will now try again to see if that sufficed for old hands to teach new hands.

Suppose Keltham takes a sphere, put it on a table with bouncy boundaries, starts it moving fast, and lets it bounce back and forth many times until it comes to a halt, somewhere random.  Object!Keltham should theoretically be considered as doing this in private, where the object!others can't see him, though for illustration purposes, meta!Keltham will write down everything plainly for people's meta!selves in class.

[--------0---------------------]

Object!Keltham marks down where Ball 0 landed, picks it up, and again rolls it hard.

[--------0------------1--------]

Object!Keltham then asks the object!classroom for their odds that Ball 1 landed to the left or the right of Ball 0.  Remember, their meta!selves can see where Keltham made the marks on the whiteboard representing where Ball 0 and Ball 1 landed, but their object!selves can't.

Before being told the answer, what probability should their object!selves assign that Ball 1 landed to the left or right of Ball 0, after both balls bounced back and forth on the table many times?  Their object!selves know the experimental setup, they just don't know the detailed results until object!Keltham tells them. 

The Rule of Succession!  This is sort of picking up the topic from last time about Science!, how to do statistical inference in cases slightly more complicated than the trivial ones discussed previously.  Asmodia has now supposedly had the time to teach the new candidates some additional Law of Probability, aided by Meritxell, people have cast a few Fox's Cunnings on themselves and others.  They will now try again to see if that sufficed for old hands to teach new hands.

Suppose Keltham takes a sphere, puts it on a table with bouncy boundaries, shoves it rolling quickly, and lets it bounce back and forth many times until it comes to a halt, somewhere random.  Object!Keltham should theoretically be considered as doing this in private, where the object!others can't see him, though for illustration purposes, meta!Keltham will write down everything plainly for people's meta!selves in class.

[--------0---------------------]

Object!Keltham marks down where Ball 0 landed, picks up the ball, and again rolls it hard.

[--------0------------1--------]

Object!Keltham then asks the object!classroom for their odds that Ball 1 landed to the left or the right of Ball 0.  Remember, their meta!selves can see where Keltham made the marks on the whiteboard representing where Ball 0 and Ball 1 landed, but their object!selves can't.

Before being told the answer, what probability should their object!selves assign that Ball 1 landed to the left or right of Ball 0, after both balls bounced back and forth on the table many times?  Their object!selves know the experimental setup, they just don't know the detailed results until object!Keltham tells them. 

The Rule of Succession!  This is sort of picking up the topic from last time about Science!, how to do statistical inference in cases slightly more complicated than the trivial ones discussed previously.  Asmodia has now supposedly had the time to teach the new candidates some additional Law of Probability, aided by Meritxell.  People have cast a few Fox's Cunnings on themselves and others.  They will now try again to see if that sufficed for old hands to teach new hands.

Suppose Keltham takes a sphere, puts it on a table with bouncy boundaries, shoves it rolling quickly, and lets it bounce back and forth many times until it comes to a halt, somewhere random.  Object!Keltham should theoretically be considered as doing this in private, where the object!others can't see him, though for illustration purposes, meta!Keltham will write down everything plainly for people's meta!selves in class.

[--------0---------------------]

Object!Keltham marks down where Ball 0 landed, picks up the ball, and again rolls it hard.

[--------0------------1--------]

Object!Keltham then asks the object!classroom for their odds that Ball 1 landed to the left or the right of Ball 0.  Remember, their meta!selves can see where Keltham made the marks on the whiteboard representing where Ball 0 and Ball 1 landed, but their object!selves can't.

Before being told the answer, what probability should their object!selves assign that Ball 1 landed to the left or right of Ball 0, after both balls bounced back and forth on the table many times?  Their object!selves know the experimental setup, they just don't know the detailed results until object!Keltham tells them.