"Obvious wrong answer: This new data also has 0.2 likelihood on the less-than-50% bucket, and 0.3 likelihood on the 50% bucket, so the combined likelihood across the two experiments is 0.2 times 0.2 equals 0.4... equals 0.04 assuming less-than-50%, and 0.09 assuming 50%."
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"Obvious wrong answer: This new data also has 0.2 likelihood on the less-than-50% bucket, and 0.3 likelihood on the 50% bucket, so the combined likelihood across the two experiments is 0.2 times 0.2 equals 0.4... equals 0.04 assuming less-than-50%, and 0.3 * 0.3 = 0.09 assuming 50%." |