"That's correct!  If you spin a three-sided coin and then, depending on the results, start flipping another coin with 0.1 or 0.2 or 0.4 propensity to Queen, your chances of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text are around 2%.  Whereas if you just start spinning a fair coin, your chance of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text is around 3%."

"That's correct!  If you spin a fair three-sided coin and then, depending on the results, start flipping a new biased coin with 0.1 or 0.2 or 0.4 propensity to Queen, your chances of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text are around 2%.  Whereas if you just start spinning a fair two-sided coin, your chance of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text is around 3%."

"That's correct!  If you spin a fair three-sided coin and then, depending on the results, start flipping a new biased coin with 0.1 or 0.2 or 0.4 propensity to Queen, your chances of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text are around 2%.  Whereas if you just start spinning a fair two-sided coin, your chance of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text is around 3%."

"The 0.4 sub-hypothesis is most likely to generate Text Queen Queen Text Text.  But that hypothesis starts out with only one-third of the prior probability mass in the 'less than 50%' bucket of hypotheses.  The bucket as a whole is less likely to generate the sequence than the sub-hypothesis inside it."

"Incidentally, one would not in Baseline say that the sub-hypothesis of 0.4 propensity started out with a 1/3 'likelihood' of being true, but that it started out with a 1/3 'prior-probability' of being true.  Some of the reason why I've been using those Baseline words is because they have precise meanings, whereas Taldane has a bunch of words like chance and probability and likelihood that all apparently mean the same thing."

"That's correct!  If you spin a fair three-sided coin and then, depending on the results, start flipping a new biased coin with 0.1 or 0.2 or 0.4 propensity to Queen, your chances of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text are around 2%.  Whereas if you just start spinning a fair two-sided coin, your chance of getting Text Queen Queen Text Text is around 3%."

"The 0.4 sub-hypothesis is most likely to generate Text Queen Queen Text Text.  But that hypothesis starts out with only one-third of the prior probability mass in the 'less than 50%' bucket of hypotheses.  The bucket as a whole is less likely to generate the sequence than the sub-hypothesis inside it."

"Incidentally, one would not in Baseline say that the sub-hypothesis of 0.4 propensity started out with a 1/3 'likelihood' of being true, but that it started out with a 1/3 'prior-probability' of being true.  Some of the reason why I've been using those Baseline words is because they have precise meanings, whereas Taldane has a bunch of words like chance and probability and likelihood that all apparently mean the same thing why does this crazy language even have that don't actually answer me unless it's important somehow."