"Stop trying to think so much in complicated math and fall back on common sense. I spin one fair coin, 50% chance of Queen, 50% of Text. If it comes up Queen, I take out a new coin that's biased to have a 60% chance of coming up Queen. If it comes up Text, I take out a different new coin that's biased to have a 40% chance of coming up Queen. You don't get to observe the prior coinspin. What's your betting chance that, when I spin the new coin, it shows up Queen?"
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lawful chaotic
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| Version: 2 | |
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lawful chaotic
"Stop trying to think so much in complicated math and fall back on common sense. I spin one fair coin, 50% chance of Queen, 50% of Text. If it comes up Queen, I take out a new coin that's biased to have a 60% chance of coming up Queen. If it comes up Text, I take out a different new coin that's biased to have a 40% chance of coming up Queen." "Suppose I was actually going to carry out that procedure. You don't get to observe the prior coinspin. What's your betting chance that, when I spin whichever new coin I take out, it shows up Queen?" |
| Version: 3 | |
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lawful chaotic
"Stop trying to think so much in complicated math and fall back on common sense. I spin one fair coin, 50% chance of Queen, 50% of Text. If the first coin comes up Queen, I take out a new coin that's biased to have a 60% chance of coming up Queen. If the first coin comes up Text, I take out a different new coin that's biased to have a 40% chance of coming up Queen." "Suppose I was actually going to carry out that procedure. You don't get to observe the prior coinspin. What's your betting chance that, when I spin whichever new coin I take out, it shows up Queen?" |