"This is something to do with making the guess about what happened after seeing the data, isn't it? Instead of guessing the ratios first for stats-matter and stats-don't-matter, we did the experiment, and then made up the exact shapes of our guesses after, which is a naughty thing we weren't supposed to do."

"And there's something about doing that, looking at data you already have and matching that way, that tends to produce these relative probabilities around 1.25 or so, isn't there?"

"This is something to do with making the guess about what happened after seeing the data, isn't it? Instead of guessing the ratios first for stats-matter and stats-don't-matter, we did the experiment, and then made up the exact shapes of our guesses after, which is a naughty thing we weren't supposed to do."

"And there's some deep mathematical thing about doing that, looking at data you already have and matching that way, that tends to produce these relative probabilities around 1.25 or so, isn't there?"

This is more than a little mortifying but at least a bunch of her peers didn't get this right first, she can keep her composure, really she can.

"This is something to do with making the guess about what happened after seeing the data, isn't it? Instead of guessing the ratios first for stats-matter and stats-don't-matter, we did the experiment, and then made up the exact shapes of our guesses after, which is a naughty thing we weren't supposed to do."

"And there's some deep mathematical thing about doing that, looking at data you already have and matching that way, that tends to produce these relative probabilities around 1.25 or so, isn't there?"