"Do you know what we call it in Civilization when somebody comes in and spends a lot of money to try to shift a prediction market away from the Lawful value?"

"In Baseline:  'Free money!'"

"You can only make as much money off a prediction market by being right, as there is wrong money to bet against you, and take.  A ton of wrong money coming into a prediction market is a subsidy that can pay smart people the cost of their time to come in, stare at that market, figure out what the correct price ought to be, and buy up shares trading significantly away from that price."

"From the perspectives of smart traders, it doesn't matter whether the person is foolishly trying to distort the market, or just foolish.  It's a subsidy to them either way.  The more stupid money goes in to be taken for free, the more smart people crowd around competing to take it at exactly the right price.  People who try to distort prediction markets just end up making them more accurate.  You'd need to be able to literally outbid the rest of Civilization combined, to still be standing there buying shares at a bad price after everyone else in Civilization who wanted free money had run out of money they could use to take your money.  That's why Civilization trusts prediction markets so much."

"Do you know what we call it in Civilization when somebody comes in and spends a lot of money to try to shift a prediction market away from the Lawful value?"

"In Baseline:  'Free money!'"

"Prediction markets don't generate money out of nothing.  You can only make as much money off a prediction market by being right, as there is wrong money to bet against you, for you to take.  A ton of wrong money coming into a prediction market is a subsidy that can pay smart people the cost of their time to come in, stare at that market, figure out what the correct price ought to be, and buy up shares trading significantly away from that price."

"From the perspectives of smart traders, it doesn't matter whether the person is foolishly trying to distort the market, or just foolish.  It's a subsidy to them either way.  The more stupid money goes in to be taken for free, the more smart people crowd around competing to take it at exactly the right price.  People who try to distort prediction markets just end up making them more accurate.  You'd need to be able to literally outbid the rest of Civilization combined, to still be standing there buying shares at a bad price after everyone else in Civilization who wanted free money had run out of money they could use to take your money.  That's why Civilization trusts prediction markets so much."

"Do you know what we call it in Civilization when somebody comes in and spends a lot of money to try to shift a prediction market away from the Lawful value?"

"In Baseline:  'Free money!'"

"Prediction markets don't generate money out of nothing.  You can only make as much money off a prediction market by being right, as there is wrong money to bet against you, for you to take.  A ton of wrong money coming into a prediction market is a subsidy that can pay smart people the cost of their time to come in, stare at that market, figure out what the correct price ought to be, and buy up shares trading significantly away from that price."

"From the perspectives of smart traders, it doesn't matter whether the person is foolishly trying to distort the market, or just foolish.  It's a subsidy to them either way.  The more stupid money goes in to be taken for free, the more smart people crowd around competing to take it at exactly the right price.  People who try to distort prediction markets just end up making them more accurate.  You'd need to be able to literally outbid the rest of Civilization combined, to still be standing there buying shares at a bad price after everyone else in Civilization who wanted free money had run out of money they could use to take your money."

"That's why Civilization trusts prediction markets so much.  They're a form of speech where lying costs you, and then if you try to lie anyways no matter how much that costs you, it just makes the truth stronger."

"Do you know what we call it in Civilization when somebody comes in and spends a lot of money to try to shift a prediction market away from the Lawful value?"

"In Baseline:  'Free money!'"

"Prediction markets don't generate money out of nothing.  You can only make as much money off a prediction market by being right, as there is wrong money to bet against you, for you to take.  A ton of wrong money coming into a prediction market is a subsidy that can pay smart people the cost of their time to come in, stare at that market, figure out what the correct price ought to be, and buy up shares trading significantly away from that price."

"From the perspectives of smart traders, it doesn't matter whether the person is foolishly trying to distort the market, or just foolish.  It's a subsidy to them either way.  The more stupid money goes in to be taken, the more smart people crowd around competing to take it at exactly the right price.  People who try to distort prediction markets just end up making them more accurate.  You'd need to be able to literally outbid the rest of Civilization combined, to still be standing there buying shares at a bad price after everyone else in Civilization who wanted free money had run out of money they could use to take your money."

"That's why Civilization trusts prediction markets so much.  They're a form of speech where lying costs you, and then if you try to lie anyways no matter how much that costs you, it just makes the truth stronger."