"That's basically it, except that I didn't actually calculate any prior odds or multiply them?  When you're dealing with weird hypotheses on the order of 'my new world is actually a Conspiracy at a low level of sophistication distinguishable to me from reality', where your own mind is doing a lot of thrashing, it can make more sense for a non-Keeper like myself to make up the 'likelihoods', calculate them the combined likelihood, and then just... sort of let my intuitive mind keep track of the intuitive update that it feels after I stare at those likelihoods a bit?  If I was keeping formal track of the chance of Conspiracy, it would probably swing all over the place, because of the degree to which I'm making all of the likelihoods up.  The thing to notice is if it starts to feel to me like there's a trend, or like things really are starting to point in that direction."

"But, yes, that's the basic formula for combining the results from multiple experiments."

"That's basically correct, except that I didn't actually calculate any prior odds or multiply them?  When you're dealing with weird hypotheses on the order of 'my new world is actually a Conspiracy at a low level of sophistication distinguishable to me from reality', where your own mind is doing a lot of thrashing, it can make more sense for a non-Keeper like myself to make up the 'likelihoods', calculate them the combined likelihood, and then just... sort of let my intuitive mind keep track of the intuitive update that it feels after I stare at those likelihoods a bit?  If I was keeping formal track of the chance of Conspiracy, it would probably swing all over the place, because of the degree to which I'm making all of the likelihoods up.  The thing to notice is if it starts to feel to me like there's a trend, or like things really are starting to point in that direction."

"But, yes, that's the basic formula for combining the results from multiple experiments."

"That's basically correct, except that I didn't actually calculate any prior odds or multiply them?  When you're dealing with weird hypotheses on the order of 'my new world is actually a Conspiracy at a low level of sophistication distinguishable to me from reality', where your own mind is doing a lot of thrashing, it can make more sense for a non-Keeper like myself to make up the 'likelihoods', calculate them the combined likelihood, and then just... sort of let my intuitive mind keep track of the intuitive update that it feels after I stare at those likelihoods a bit?  If I was keeping formal track of the chance of Conspiracy, it would probably swing all over the place, because of the degree to which I'm making all of the likelihoods up.  The thing to notice is if it starts to feel to me like there's a trend, in the net direction of updating, after I keep on making up likelihoods."

"But, yes, that's the Law for combining the results from multiple experiments."

"That's basically correct, except that I didn't actually calculate any prior odds or multiply them?  When you're dealing with weird hypotheses on the order of 'my new world is actually a Conspiracy at a low level of sophistication distinguishable to me from reality', where your own mind is doing a lot of thrashing, it can make more sense for a non-Keeper like myself to make up the 'likelihoods', calculate the combined likelihood, and then just... sort of let my intuitive mind keep track of the intuitive update that it feels after I stare at those likelihoods a bit?  If I was keeping formal track of the chance of Conspiracy, it would probably swing all over the place, because of the degree to which I'm making all of the likelihoods up.  The thing to notice is if it starts to feel to me like there's a trend, after I keep on making up likelihoods."

"But, yes, that's the Law for combining the results from multiple experiments."