"Keltham, you literally ran that exact problem on me earlier, when you were 'trolling' me, remember?  Luckily for your line of inquiry, I'd actually worked it out on my own before then and I can confirm that it's obvious."

"But yeah, say you've got three hypotheses, like, 'Ordinary Asmodia', 'Conspiracy Asmodia', and 'Time-Traveling Asmodia'.  They all start out with some probability-weights attached to them - Keltham didn't actually say what his prior weights were, but let's say they were 0.90 Ordinary, 0.06 Conspiracy, 0.03 Time-Travel, and 0.01 for Something Else but we're not going to consider that part -"

"Keltham, you literally ran that exact problem on me earlier, when you were 'trolling' me, remember?  Luckily for your line of inquiry, I'd worked it out on my own before then, while wearing the artifact headband, and I can confirm that it's obvious."

"But yeah, say you've got three hypotheses, like, 'Ordinary Asmodia', 'Conspiracy Asmodia', and 'Time-Traveling Asmodia'.  They all start out with some probability-weights attached to them - Keltham didn't actually say what his prior weights were, but let's say they were 0.90 Ordinary, 0.06 Conspiracy, 0.03 Time-Travel, and 0.01 for Something Else but we're not going to consider that part -"

"Keltham, you literally ran that exact problem on me earlier, when you were 'trolling' me, remember?  Luckily for your real question, I'd worked it out on my own before then, while wearing the artifact headband, and I can confirm that it's obvious."

"But yeah, say you've got three hypotheses, like, 'Ordinary Asmodia', 'Conspiracy Asmodia', and 'Time-Traveling Asmodia'.  They all start out with some probability-weights attached to them - Keltham didn't actually say what his prior weights were, but let's say they were 0.90 Ordinary, 0.06 Conspiracy, 0.03 Time-Travel, and 0.01 for Something Else but we're not going to consider that part -"