"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it.  I think we're basically going to have to run our own tiny prediction markets as soon as any of us significantly disagree about anything important, because I am not really seeing how else Science! could work."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void.  Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop reading newspapers."

"My point being, that Golarion has no prediction markets, is probably alone a sufficient explanation of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first."

"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it.  I think we're basically going to have to run our own tiny prediction markets as soon as any of us significantly disagree about anything important, because I am not really seeing how else Science! could work."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void.  Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop believing things they read in newspapers, including the things that experts actually did believe.  Or maybe that's too optimistic and -"

"Anyways!  Golarion having no prediction markets, is probably alone a sufficient explanation of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first."

"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it.  I think we're basically going to have to run our own tiny prediction markets as soon as any of us significantly disagree about anything important, because I am not really seeing how else Science! could work."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void.  Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop believing things they read in newspapers, including the things that experts actually did believe.  Or maybe that's too optimistic and -"

"Anyways!  Golarion having no prediction markets, is probably alone a sufficient explanation of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first.  You have to be able to say what Civilization believes, before you can observe or measure how fast Civilization is learning, or figure out how to make it learn faster."

"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it.  I think we're basically going to have to run our own tiny prediction markets as soon as any of us significantly disagree about anything important, because I am not really seeing how else Science! could work."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void."

"Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop believing things they read in newspapers, including the things that experts actually did believe.  Or maybe that's too optimistic and -"

"Anyways!  Golarion having no prediction markets, is probably alone a sufficient explanation of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first.  You have to be able to say what Civilization believes, before you can observe or measure how fast Civilization is learning, or figure out how to make it learn faster."

"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it.  I think we're basically going to have to run our own tiny prediction markets as soon as any of us significantly disagree about anything important, because I am not really seeing how else Science! could work."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void."

"Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop believing things they read in newspapers, including the things that experts actually did believe.  Or maybe that's too optimistic and -"

"Anyways!  Golarion having no prediction markets, is perhaps alone an 'already-sufficient-explanation' of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first.  You have to be able to say what Civilization believes, before you can observe or measure how fast Civilization is learning, or figure out how to make it learn faster."

"With that said, Civilization is obviously running prediction markets all of the time on what some particular experiment will say, in its results, or what a hypothetical future experiment will say.  Prediction markets are a fundamental part of doing community experimentation, because prediction markets are a fundamental part of collective 'epistemology' - the way that a Civilization can be said to 'believe' anything apart from the beliefs of the individual people in it."

"For example.  What would it mean to say that an experiment had a 'surprising' result, if there's no prediction market assigning that result a low probability?  Maybe it surprised you personally, but then maybe you were just being stupid and not seeing what others would consider obvious.  Why should Civilization care, if just you personally were surprised?  Why should an 'impact-buyer' believe you, if you claim the results would have been a surprise to society?"

"Or let's say that you make what seems to you like a really incredible discovery, a way to refine ten pounds of spellsilver ore into twenty pounds of spellsilver.  Call the newspapers!  The newspapers are... somewhat skeptical about this incredible claim?  If there's a prediction market, they can check that prediction market to see what Civilization thinks will be the result of duplicating your experimental procedure.  If there's no prediction market, the newspaper just has no idea what to believe and it sounds weird, or so I imagine, and so your possibly incredible discovery drops into the void."

"Or maybe I'm too optimistic about how it works in Golarion, and instead the newspapers print excited stories about your spellsilver discovery, which any real spellsilver scientist knows has to almost be certainly false, but Intelligence 10 people read the newspapers and now they think that's how spellsilver mining totally works and they're confused about why nobody else is adopting this great idea.  Actually that's still too optimistic, actually they'd just stop believing things they read in newspapers, including the things that experts actually did believe.  Or maybe that's too optimistic and -"

"Anyways!  Golarion having no prediction markets, is perhaps alone an 'already-sufficient-explanation' of why Golarion has no Science! and is so far below dath ilan's level of knowledge.  Nobody knows, now, at which point in history Science! was invented - at what point pre-Civilization really started learning collectively rather than as a set of individual experimenters working in isolation or small groups or factions - but I would expect that it only happened after the simpler idea of prediction markets got invented first.  You have to be able to say what Civilization believes, before you can observe or measure how fast Civilization is learning, or figure out how to make it learn faster."