"So that's the particular things that happened during your 'timing side-channel' experiments, and what you thought about them in Taldane.  The thing I'm asking for is more like -"

"Well, I called it Probability Sight at one point, by analogy to Arcane Sight, and Asmodia called it that too after she suddenly developed it one day."

"It's an abstract way of seeing things that would generalize to doing more Science later.  I'm trying to figure if there's some way to prompt it into people without either raising them from dath ilani, or dropping an artifact headband on them for two hours and inducing a permanent need for cognitive prosthetics."

"Let me try -"

"So, a few days ago, when I was introducing the idea of lost-powers-of-2 as the 'truth-functional' relationship between a probability-claim, and reality, Carissa was briefly worried about how, if you could only ever lose 2s by playing that game, would that mean, people would be incentivized to avoid playing it?  And I was like, nothing bad directly happens to you when you lose a 2, it's just a relative measure of how well you're predicting, given that you're trying to predict at all."

"When you start trying to predict the timing, you lose more 2s, or 'bits' in Baseline; the joint probability you assign to everything you see, goes down.  But in the course of losing more 2s, you further narrow down what's probably true, and concentrate the remaining probability that hasn't been eliminated."

"This is not necessarily something that happens every time you manage to predict more and lose more bits.  If that was always a productive activity, I could go on spinning a coin and seeing whether it came up showing the Queen's face, or the text on the reverse side, and lose a bit every time.  The thing about the 'timing side-channel' is that some different hypotheses about what could be going on, lose different amounts of 2s; that's what makes it an informative experiment."

"That's why adding this new 'variable' to measure and predict, which makes you lose more 2s, is actually a great move, because the 2s are differentially coming from different hypotheses."

"Why does it help to measure the times more precisely?"

"So that's the particular things that happened during your 'timing side-channel' experiments, and what you thought about them in Taldane.  The thing I'm asking for is more like -"

"Well, I called it Probability Sight at one point, by analogy to Arcane Sight, and Asmodia called it that too after she suddenly developed it one day."

"It's an abstract way of seeing things that would generalize to doing more Science later.  I'm trying to figure if there's some way to get it into people without either raising them as dath ilani, or dropping an artifact headband on them for two hours and inducing a permanent need for a cognitive prosthetic."

"Let me try -"

"So, a few days ago, when I was introducing the idea of lost-powers-of-2 as the 'truth-functional' relationship between a probability-claim, and reality, Carissa was briefly worried about how, if you could only ever lose 2s by playing that game, would that mean, people would be incentivized to avoid playing it?  And I was like, nothing bad directly happens to you when you lose a 2, it's just a relative measure of how well you're predicting, given that you're trying to predict at all."

"When you start trying to predict the timing, you lose more 2s, or 'bits' in Baseline.  The joint probability you assign to everything you see, goes down, because you see more.  But in the course of losing more 2s, you further narrow down what's probably true, and concentrate the remaining probability that hasn't been eliminated."

"This is not necessarily something that happens every time you manage to predict more and lose more bits.  If that was always a productive activity, I could go on spinning a coin and seeing whether it came up showing the Queen's face, or the text on the reverse side, and lose a bit every time.  The thing about the 'timing side-channel' is that some different hypotheses about what could be going on, lose different amounts of 2s; that's what makes it an informative experiment."

"That's why adding this new 'variable' to measure and predict, which makes you lose more 2s, is actually a great move, because the 2s are differentially coming from different hypotheses."

"Why does it help to measure the times more precisely?"

"So that's the particular things that happened during your 'timing side-channel' experiments, and what you thought about them in Taldane.  The thing I'm asking for is more like -"

"Well, I called it Probability Sight at one point, by analogy to Arcane Sight, and Asmodia called it that too after she suddenly developed it one day."

"It's an abstract way of seeing things that would generalize to doing more Science later.  I'm trying to figure if there's some way to get it into people without either raising them as dath ilani, or dropping an artifact headband on them for two hours and inducing a permanent need for a cognitive prosthetic."

"Let me try -"

"So, a few days ago, when I was introducing the idea of lost-powers-of-2 as the 'truth-functional' relationship between a probability-claim, and reality, Carissa was briefly worried about how, if you could only ever lose 2s by playing that game, would that mean, people would be incentivized to avoid playing it?  And I was like, nothing bad directly happens to you when you lose a 2, it's just a relative measure of how well you're predicting, given that you're trying to predict at all."

"When you start trying to predict the timing, you lose more 2s, or 'bits' in Baseline.  The joint probability you assign to everything you see, goes down, because you see more.  But in the course of losing more 2s, you further narrow down what's probably true, and concentrate the remaining probability that hasn't been eliminated."

"This is not necessarily something that happens every time you manage to predict more and lose more 'bits'.  If that was always a productive activity, I could go on spinning a coin and seeing whether it came up showing the Queen's face, or the text on the reverse side, and lose one 'bit' every time.  The thing about the 'timing side-channel' is that some different hypotheses about what could be going on, lose different amounts of 2s; that's what makes it an informative experiment."

"That's why adding this new 'variable' to measure and predict, which makes you lose more 2s, is actually a great move, because the 2s are differentially coming from different hypotheses."

"Why does it help to measure the times more precisely?"

"So that's the particular things that happened during your 'timing side-channel' experiments, and what you thought about them in Taldane.  The thing I'm asking for is more like -"

"Well, I called it Probability Sight at one point, by analogy to Arcane Sight, and Asmodia called it that too after she suddenly developed it one day."

"It's an abstract way of seeing things that would generalize to doing more Science later.  I'm trying to figure if there's some way to get it into people without either raising them as dath ilani, or dropping an artifact headband on them for two hours and inducing a permanent need for a cognitive prosthetic."

"Let me try -"

"So, a few days ago, when I was introducing the idea of lost-powers-of-2 as the 'truth-functional' relationship between a probability-claim, and reality, Carissa was briefly worried about how, if you could only ever lose 2s by playing that game, would that mean, people would be incentivized to avoid playing it?  And I was like, nothing bad directly happens to you when you lose a 2, it's just a relative measure of how well you're predicting, given that you're trying to predict at all."

"When you start trying to predict the timing, you lose more 2s, or 'bits' in Baseline.  The joint probability you assign to everything you see, goes down, because you see more.  But in the course of losing more 2s, you further narrow down what's probably true, and concentrate the remaining probability that hasn't been eliminated."

"This is not necessarily something that happens every time you manage to predict more and lose more 'bits'.  If that was always a productive activity, I could go on spinning a coin and seeing whether it came up showing the Queen's face, or the text on the reverse side, and lose one 'bit' every time.  The thing about the 'timing side-channel' is that some different hypotheses about what could be going on, lose different amounts of 2s; that's what makes it an informative experiment."

"That's why adding this new 'variable' to measure and predict, which makes you lose more 2s, is actually a great move, because the 2s are differentially coming from different hypotheses.  Figuring out which hypothesis is true, is what we care about, not how many 2s we lose along the way inside predictions we didn't stake lots of value on getting right."

"Why does it help to measure the times more precisely?"