Break time! Lunch! Asmodia wants to run a daily practice prediction market about who Keltham sleeps with each night which Keltham doesn't get to see until the next day! Keltham will quietly smile to himself and set up a market like that and see how long it takes the women to work out that they should stop trading at non-extreme bid-ask spreads when anybody bets using private information!
Asmodia wants to experiment with policy prediction markets too! Asmodia wants to bet on which avenues work out for mining spellsilver! Keltham will explain that this sort of thing works better when anybody actually knows anything but sure! Maybe they can get the spellsilver mining experts to bet too? It's actually kind of complicated when the policy prediction market is trying to do a continuous quantity like 'when spellsilver manufacture drops in cost by how much' but they can arbitrarily declare the threshold to be a 25% cost drop in one month, and have policy markets on whether that's more likely to get done if Keltham invests his effort in manufacturing cheaper acid for the current process, or in perfecting spellsilver extraction that works on the alternate spellsilver ore.