"With some tiny probability I'll make a ton of money, though, if all the gambles I take pay off their maximum amounts.  Maybe I just happen to weight that tiny probability by a huge amount in my calculations, much larger than I'd weight if I was multiplying outcome-values by probability-weights the way you think I should."

"So once again, you have not yet justified the principle of multiplying by probability, except by appealing to the principle of multiplying by probability."

"Now, if you could show that I was going to trade in a pattern that led me to have strictly lower probabilities of getting an apple, that'd be another thing.  I do accept the principle that I should always want more apples and a greater probability of apples, all my other resources being equal or undiminished."

"With some tiny probability I'll make a ton of money, though, if all the gambles I take pay off their maximum amounts.  Maybe I just happen to weight that tiny probability by a huge amount in my calculations, much larger than I'd weight it if I was multiplying outcome-values by probability-weights the way you think I should."

"So once again, you have not yet justified the principle of multiplying by probability, except by appealing to the principle of multiplying by probability."

"Now, if you could show that I was going to trade in a pattern that led me to have strictly lower probabilities of getting an apple, that'd be another thing.  I do accept the principle that I should always want more apples and a greater probability of apples, all my other resources being equal or undiminished."

"With some tiny probability I'll make a ton of money, though, if all the gambles I take pay off their maximum amounts.  Maybe I just happen to weight that tiny probability by a huge amount in my calculations, much larger than I'd weight it if I was multiplying outcome-values by probability-weights the way you think I should."

"So once again, you have not yet justified the principle of multiplying by probability, except by appealing to the principle of multiplying by probability."

"Now, if you could show that I was going to trade in a pattern that led me into strictly lower probabilities of getting an apple, or passing up strictly higher chances, that'd be another matter.  I do accept the principle that I should always want more apples and a greater probability of apples, all my other resources being equal or undiminished."