Asmodia would be hesitant about giving this talk when the actual insights happened 3 days ago instead of 1 day ago, except that she has wisely foreseen this coming and refreshed the thoughts in her mind already.
Asmodia speaks then, to Pilar and Meritxell with Keltham observing, upon Keltham's seven problems; the remaining five, since she already spoke of #1 and #2.
#3, no empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof. The surface mathematical truth of this is that to shift probabilities from theory1 to theory2 you must encounter evidence with P(evidence ◁ theory2) > P(evidence ◁ theory1); but then if the evidence is not seen, one necessarily has P(~evidence ◁ theory2) < P(~evidence ◁ theory1); and the test by which theory2 hoped to advance itself at the expense of theory1, if it's right, instead becomes its downfall at theory1's hands, if it's wrong.
And the deeper meaning of this is how human minds are constantly constantly trying to pretend at imbalanced games, where they can win too much with too little risk. Perhaps P(evidence ◁ theory1) is higher than theory2's advocates would like to think. Keltham exhibited to them, certainly deliberately, some of those possible fallacies, when he claimed that only the Conspiracy could possibly predict that Ione and Carissa and Pilar would all go off together; there was an Ordinary explanation as well, and if anything a stronger one, because there was an Ordinary fact about those three having been absent from the general group (along with Asmodia, who was however known to have a reason to be busy), whereas explanations based in Conspiracy don't single out those three to quite the same degree - though it is of course true that in some Conspiracy worlds, those three also need to go off and copy Invisibility, so maybe you can't really say the Conspiracy assigns much less probability - though to Asmodia it does seem like copying spells is more of an ordinary thing and in the Conspiracy world everybody already has all the spells they need assigned to them? Unless the Conspiracy is faking that. You could always have the Conspiracy trying to do on purpose what they think the Ordinary world would do -
(Keltham interrupts to say that you can go down that thing-a-conversation-goes-down forever, and Asmodia should return to topic, exactly as realAsmodia predicted he would do after alterAsmodia started saying all that. She keeps her smile strictly inside.)
Or more simply, people can be broken in the way where they try to just update off the positive evidence that would prove theory2, if it appears, and mysteriously forget to check their mental books, if instead the negated ~evidence is seen or unseen. If those three had failed to disappear at lunch, which Keltham had at one point claimed the Conspiracy assigned 100% probability to expecting, would a non-dath-ilani remember to update against the Conspiracy?
Or people just make up the probabilities afterwards, or in hindsight - not so much to have both evidence and ~evidence prove theory2, as to have evidence prove theory2 more than it should, and ~evidence disprove theory2 less.
And if you don't make up any numbers at all, if you don't even know the Law of it, then how would you ever notice or realize you were doing anything wrong?
Such is all Golarion, seen with the eyes of a dath ilani. They are not only insane, but cheating. But in this they can at best deceive themselves, and others, if none are dath ilani; for if you put numbers on it all it would be plain as day to sight -