"Prior probability in this season for a couple of rainy days... ten percent? But I think we can legitimately expect Keltham not to think that the Conspiracy world more narrowly predicts us hiding the sky from him... Unless he's already noticed a time anomaly, in which case he thinks about trying to track the moon and then notices that it just happens to be rainy while it should be visible."
"I concur with the plan, though. I think it's better than leaving our universe's moon out where Keltham can just see it."