"#1 is about how there's all the different things a hypothesis could predict, and all the probabilities it puts on them have to sum to 1, if there's like five different things that could happen, you can't say 40% for each, even if you come up with a really clever explanation for each of them, if all the explanations sound equally clever they get the same probability which is 20% each and that's just the same as, like, going 'I don't know' about each of them."
"#2 you got, it sounds like, it just says that if something is half as likely as something else, you need evidence twice as likely as if not to start believing it, and if it's a thousandth the evidence has to be a thousand times as likely -"