No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been much longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to some one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what it is you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take her much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been much longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to some one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what it is you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take her much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been much longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to some one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take her much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been much longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to some one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to some one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to at least one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the likelihood ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme prior, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
It doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to at least one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the thing-that-is-a-likelihood-ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme thing-that-is-the-prior-odds, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
So it doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, on Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to at least one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the thing-that-is-a-likelihood-ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme thing-that-is-the-prior-odds, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
So it doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, onward Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
No dath ilani out of living memory would have seen the phenomenon that is occurring inside Asmodia now.
No, not even the oldest Rememberers staying alive half from machine assistance and half from willpower. It has been longer than that since Civilization trialed what happens if you take an adult as generally talented, reflective, and mathematically intelligent as Asmodia is now, and expose them for the first time in their lives to the idea of probability theory. Only those sleeping in the cold would have witnessed it; perhaps not even they.
1. Your strength in the Way is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you're equally good at explaining any outcome you can see, that's the same as not knowing anything.
3. No empirical theory can prove itself except by risking its disproof.
4. To convince me of your theory, make a correct prediction that no other theory makes.
5. A precise true prediction is much more convincing than an imprecise true one.
6. It is impossible to coherently expect to convince yourself of anything.
7. You can't expect anyone else to convince you of something either, even if you think they're controlling everything you see.
Asmodia has decided to wager on the prospect of solving all Keltham's seven problems within an hour, and then turning her attention to games of deception for the remaining forty-five minutes; because his #7 is the key, it has to be.
It might not have been a decision she'd have made before for any Wisdom, but the added Splendour is helping, even that is helping, for some element of that is lending Asmodia a driving will and force that she had only known before in the grips of exultation. Keltham thinks this problem set is possible to at least one of his students, and maybe he would've been wrong about that; but if Keltham can imagine that being possible, then this Asmodia could should will get it done within a single hour.
She hit his #1 and bounced, it is too poetic she does not know what it means so back off and try #2 that's just too obvious it says that the thing-that-is-a-likelihood-ratio has to be extreme to overcome an extreme thing-that-is-the-prior-odds, is there something she's missing, just assume not for now and continue, she tries #3 it doesn't solve immediately there's no obvious thing it means, so try #4 and see if solving all the fast problems helps and #4 isn't instantly obvious but Asmodia can feel in her mind the hint of a shape where it might be pointing so she starts scribbling down numbers.
Cheliax has fewer proverbs about mathematics than does dath ilan; it lacks in particular a proverb to the effect that quite often in mathematics, and with only rare exceptions, knowing what you need to prove is nine-tenths of the real work.
The lost people out of Civilization's lost beginnings who first invented these ideas took longer to get there, from the bones of probability theory. But they did not have informal statements of where they should be going; and also they were not quite as smart as Asmodia is now, along some dimensions of thinkoomph if not others.
So it doesn't take Asmodia much scribbling at all to see that if Conspiracy and Ordinary make the same predictions at the same strength then neither world can win out over the other one, to see the abstract point that if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 1) = P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) then their ratio is 1:1 and the posterior odds are the same as the prior odds, while if P(evidence ◁ hypothesis 2) is 0 or just very tiny then as soon as you see the evidence you are convinced of hypothesis 1 no rather you're convinced that hypothesis 2 is false there could be other hypotheses even if Keltham only hinted at that it's clear how to adapt the math and she's doing it, she has enough of this Law to invent the rest, onward Asmodia goes to #5 and though she has no integral calculus with which to think in densities she imagines each of a thousand possible numbers between 0 and 10 down to a hundredth of fineness, and soon she has understood #5, or she thinks she's understood, no she has that's just the obvious thing it means mathematically, when you call it down to a hundredth part your prediction is ten times as strong there as if someone else called it down to a tenth, she is doing it she is inventing completing seeing the Law of Probability parsing the world with Keltham's own Sight, and the feeling that goes through her is glory.
