"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, for example, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 30% more likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out; plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some single globally-decisive-local-victory that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-level caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked for this sort of thing until I explained it today, well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 30% more likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out; plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some single globally-decisive-local-victory that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-level caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked for this sort of thing until I explained it today, well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 30% more likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out; plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-level caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today, well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 30% more likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-level caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 30% more likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that actually Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - well, you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts, well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that.  Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the mysterious absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are all here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, all of you like that are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, all of you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read here is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, all of you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"

"Interesting euphemism for that."  Obviously the main way one would accomplish this is by dating Keltham.

"Well, that's another run on Probability and what it looks like to parse things up with it.  I wouldn't say that we've really seen anything like the Law of Probability, but it's a large concept and this probably takes multiple runs from multiple angles."

"Among the lessons you could take from this run, I'd say, is how this method can accumulate gentle evidence over time.  I'm currently flailing around wildly because I just got to Golarion, and my attempts at Probability Sight mostly give me results that don't add up to coherent sense, everything is still failing all of the local consistency checks like 'Why doesn't Asmodeus count as Lawful Good then'.  But once I'm actually used to this place, if I am in the Conspiracy world, I'll be able to accumulate a bunch of things like the convenient absence of cleric spell compendia from the library, and eventually figure out the Dark Governance Conspiracy, even if no single piece of evidence is decisive.  They don't have to give themselves away with one big failure of an event that could never happen in the Ordinary world, I just need to be oriented enough to notice the soft accumulation of things that are 1.3 times as likely in the Conspiracy world than the Ordinary world, day in and day out.  Plus, because noise and error, another bunch of events that seem more likely in the Ordinary world than in the Conspiracy world, like Ione telling me about her book powers at all.  But if we're actually in the Conspiracy world and I've successfully calibrated my numbers on Golarion, there's more evidence pointing to Conspiracy than Ordinary and eventually it all adds up."

"Or maybe you could also do that gentle accumulation as a non-dath-ilani, I don't know how it actually works if you don't know any Law and never think in numbers.  But my sense of some of the crazy books I've read here is that there'd be more - people's thoughts switching around wildly, thinking, what if this, what if that, this leans that way, that leans this other way, and not really being able to add it all up properly until they encountered some" globally-decisive-local-victory "single revelation that decided the whole issue."

"All of this is of course ignoring the point that realistically Corrupted Governance just has a sufficiently high-powered caster hit me with a Suggestion spell, the recent demonstration of which to me was the point where I became comfortable enough to, like, actually say this sort of thing in front of you."

"But if for some strange reason I'm mistaken about that being a decisive point in real life, if you're all here as part of some grimdark plot, and even your highest ranks genuinely had no idea how Probability worked until I explained it today - then you'd better learn very fast if you want to keep this up, and hope you haven't already given yourself away with anything that I'll remember later."

"And if you specifically are here on some grimdark plot against your will, as would be really incredibly stupid of them, and your actual two-way contact with me is letting you learn faster and better than the people holding you here and just reading the transcripts - well, in that case, all of you are obviously the real protagonists of this story rather than myself, and may the 'tropes' be with you while I continue on in my obliviousness."

"Time for everybody to stand up and walk around and take a break.  Pilar, has Cayden Cailean got any snacks for us?"