"Well, I think the general point passes.  What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000

"And yeah, that one, I'm still working on.  What was the real explanation?"

"Well, I think the general point passes.  What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000

"And yeah, that one, I'm still working on, but mostly not believing it at the moment.  What was the real explanation?"

"Well, I think the general point passes.  What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000

"We're not going to worry about that last one, I mostly currently think it's incorrect.  But now let me ask - do you all agree that, absent this weird other hypothesis, in either the Conspiracy or the Ordinary world, that in probable realistic real worlds where some set of three girls go off by themselves, the chance of it being Carissa-Pilar-Ione is in fact 1 in 220?  Carissa, Pilar, Ione, you're again not allowed to say anything here."

"Well, I think the general point passes.  What actually singles out Carissa-Ione-Pilar isn't the Conspiracy hypothesis at all, it's a completely different hypothesis, so, yes, the probabilities I wrote down were utterly bogus."

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Weird Other Hypothesis) = 1/2,000

"We're not going to worry about that last one, I mostly currently think it's incorrect.  But now let me ask - do you all agree that, absent this weird other hypothesis, in either the Conspiracy or the Ordinary world, that in probable realistic real worlds where some set of three women go off by themselves, the chance of it being Carissa-Pilar-Ione is in fact 1 in 220?  Carissa, Pilar, Ione, you're again not allowed to say anything here."