Makes sense. Well, sort of. Wanting people to be devils still sounds kind of Good unless you're doing something else with them? But Keltham wants to get back to math.
"To put Asmodia's argument into symbols, we could rewrite," after a quick Prestidigitation, he should really hang two of those so he's not stuck constantly asking for help if he fails to catch one, "like so:"
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2000
P(Everything else ◁ Conspiracy) = 1998/2000
"Because in fact, I would have maybe assigned something like a 0.1% probability, if I'd had to start listing them in advance, that either of those groups would go off by themselves at that particular lunch."
"But this doesn't completely trash the Conspiracy theory, because you could say something very similar about the Ordinary World; an Ordinary World wouldn't have given me any more reason to think a group of girls would go off by themselves at that particular lunch. Right?"
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220,000
"And so, I claim, we end up in the same place as before."