"I agree that's something to be wary of in general - you don't want to look at what happened, and afterwards draw an exact category around it.  In this case, though, I had in fact formed Carissa, Ione, Pilar, and Possibly Asmodia as a category, in advance of seeing Carissa Ione and Pilar vanish mysteriously at lunch."

"Not to completely throw your fine argument out the window, however, let's say that the Conspiracy hypothesis really allowed for two possibilities:  First, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar would vanish at lunch, and second, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia would vanish at lunch.  So we now have the new probabilities," Keltham writes some more.

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220
     =>
P(Conspiracy ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) / P(Ordinary ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) = 1/80 * (1/2 / 1/220) = 1/80 * 110 = 1.375

"So in the light of your new argument, I shall concede that the Nefarious Governance Conspiracy is only half as relatively likely as I previously calculated, 11/8ths as likely as an Ordinary world, not 22/8ths as likely."

"But this was surely the only error in my calculations and my totally Lawful argument; I doubt you can find any others."

"I agree that's something to be wary of in general - you don't want to look at what happened, and afterwards draw an exact category around it.  In this case, though, I had in fact formed Carissa, Ione, Pilar, and Possibly Asmodia as a category, in advance of seeing Carissa Ione and Pilar vanish mysteriously at lunch."

"Not to completely throw your fine argument out the window, however, let's say that the Conspiracy hypothesis really allowed for two possibilities:  First, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar would vanish at lunch, and second, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia would vanish at lunch.  So we now have the new probabilities," Keltham writes some more.

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220
     =>
P(Conspiracy ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) / P(Ordinary ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) = 1/80 * (1/2 / 1/220) = 1/80 * 110 = 1.375

"So in the light of your new argument, I shall concede that the Nefarious Governance Conspiracy is only half as relatively likely as I previously calculated, 11/8ths as likely as an Ordinary world, not 22/8ths as likely."

"But this was surely the only error in my calculations and my totally Lawful argument; I doubt you can find any others."

Part of Keltham's brain also wants to start tracking the possibility that Gregoria is in fact the 'bastard??' daughter of the 'Baron??' of whatever, and Keltham tells it to shut up, either they'll end up dating or not.

"I agree that's something to be wary of in general - you don't want to look at what happened, and afterwards draw an exact category around it.  In this case, though, I had in fact formed Carissa, Ione, Pilar, and Possibly Asmodia as a large distinguished mental category, in advance of seeing Carissa Ione and Pilar vanish mysteriously at lunch.  It wasn't at all drawn up afterwards, in this particular case."

"Not to completely throw your fine argument out the window, however, let's say that the Conspiracy hypothesis really allowed for two possibilities:  First, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar would vanish at lunch, and second, that Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia would vanish at lunch.  So we now have the new probabilities," Keltham writes some more.

P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar-Asmodia ◁ Conspiracy) = 1/2
P(Carissa-Ione-Pilar ◁ Ordinary) = 1/220
     =>
P(Conspiracy ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) / P(Ordinary ◁ Carissa-Ione-Pilar) = 1/80 * (1/2 / 1/220) = 1/80 * 110 = 1.375

"So in the light of your new argument, I shall concede that the Nefarious Governance Conspiracy is only half as relatively likely as I previously calculated, 11/8ths as likely as an Ordinary world, not 22/8ths as likely."

"But this was surely the only error in my calculations and my totally Lawful argument; I doubt you can find any others."

Part of Keltham's brain also wants to start tracking the possibility that Gregoria is in fact the 'bastard??' daughter of the 'Baron??' of whatever, and Keltham tells it to shut up, either they'll end up dating or not.