Keltham has deduced as much, but he's not putting her in there until it reaches the point where he estimates she's answering questions too fast and disadvantaging other students from learning. That's what it takes to get put in the Holding Cell! And for so long as Meritxell hasn't forced him to toss her in by threatening the other students with spoilers, she'll try harder to get into it.
Anyways, as a basic comprehension check, how about if everyone invents and writes down a conditional probability, including the underlying P(Y) and P(X&Y). First, in a case you're allowed to just make up. Then, a realistic case, something where you know, or can constrainedly guess, the actual statistics. No extreme stats where it's 100% or 0% of something. Raise an open hand if you're done, closed hand if you think you can't do it. (He's not expecting the latter, but why trust what you can cheaply verify.)