"But to generalize the point beyond merchant ships, the purpose for which we ultimately use our wordless senses of which things are more or less likely, is to divide up our few resources between the many things we could potentially try to do.  Not just limited resources like money, but limited time, limited attention; you can only act so often and only think so much."

"Tomorrow will go differently depending on whether Nidal has figured out our new location and attacks us again even with their god sealed up, or if, alternatively, we have an enjoyable day of lectures and me learning some magic and other activities.  In the latter case, Fox's Cunnings are quite useful.  In the former case, where Nidal attacks, Fox's Cunnings are less useful and spells for setting things on fire are more useful.  But again if it's a peaceful day, spells for setting things on fire are less useful."

"So how can we possibly plan, in such an uncertain world?  The best strategy if the universe is one way, is not at all the best strategy if the universe is a different way!  And we are uncertain and can never attain absolute certainty because it's not the sort of thing that's true in every possible world, and if it were we might make a logic error anyways.  Oh woe!  Oh alas!  Shall we just choose at random since no choice is perfectly defensible?"

"And the answer is, you put weights upon the different worlds that might be true, and figure out the consequences in those different worlds, and weigh those consequences according to their probability.  A thing that makes the scale from 0 to 1, more useful than the earlier scale from 1-12, is that 0 reflects not being at all concerned about the consequences to us in some world, because we think that reality just can't be that way; 1 says that we're going to weigh the consequences only if that proposition is true, because we are certain of it.  Which, to be clear, we never are, certain that is; but sometimes we are sure enough that it's not worth the cost of thought to weigh the other possibilities."

"A probability of 3 is like saying that the consequences of something weigh on your mind three times as much, getting three times the share of your limited resources, as some possibility you were absolutely certain of; and if you try to cash out what could even mean, you start getting results like the one Carissa talked about - that you spend 300 gold with certainty, in order to make back 100 gold with probability 3, because that outcome weighs three times as much in your calculations as if it were certain."

"Among the ways that we'd make our way to the corresponding law-Fragment if we were doing everything in slow careful order, would be to show that, if we're not going to end up going in circles in certain ways, we need to consistently weigh the possibilities we deal with, and make choices based on weights of consequences, and these weights of consequences end up looking like multiplying the consequences by their probability.  And then having gone through all that slow pathway, you'd be able to say, more generally than in the special case of merchant ships that have costs and profits measurable in gold, what ill fates will befall someone if they weigh a consequence three times more strongly than if it were certain."

"That's the principle you're missing, in this case.  I'm not actually going to cover that Law-fragment at least today, but I wanted to at least make clear what I was skipping; because someday in due time you're going to have to redesign Chelish education, and it's going to have to go back and fill in, not just that part, but all the other Law-fragments we're skipping that pin down and spotlight the Law of Probability."

"Or to summarize, and maybe to see it at a glance:  To see what bad thing would happen to you, if you assigned a probability of 3, you'd have to be using that probability for something and doing something with that probability, such as, for example, sending out merchant ships, or making a bet, or deciding how many of your limited spell slots to spend on preparing against a Nidal attack."

"But to generalize the point beyond merchant ships, the purpose for which we ultimately use our wordless senses of which things are more or less likely, is to divide up our few resources between the many things we could potentially try to do.  Not just limited resources like money, but limited time, limited attention; you can only act so often and only think so much."

"Tomorrow will go differently depending on whether Nidal has figured out our new location and attacks us again even with their god sealed up, or if, alternatively, we have an enjoyable day of lectures and me learning some magic and other activities.  In the latter case, Fox's Cunnings are quite useful.  In the former case, where Nidal attacks, Fox's Cunnings are less useful and spells for setting things on fire are more useful.  But again if it's a peaceful day, spells for setting things on fire are less useful."

"So how can we possibly plan, in such an uncertain world?  The best strategy if the universe is one way, is not at all the best strategy if the universe is a different way!  And we are uncertain and can never attain absolute certainty because it's not the sort of thing that's true in every possible world, and if it were we might make a logic error anyways.  Oh woe!  Oh alas!  Shall we just choose at random since no choice is perfectly defensible?"

"And the answer is, you put weights upon the different worlds that might be true, and figure out the consequences in those different worlds, and weigh those consequences according to their probability.  A thing that makes the scale from 0 to 1, more useful than the earlier scale from 1-12, is that 0 reflects not being at all concerned about the consequences to us in some world, because we think that reality just can't be that way, we multiply the weight of consequences there by 0 hundredths out of 100.  1 says that we're going to weigh the consequences only if that proposition is true, because we are certain of it; we're going to take all of those consequences as objects of concern, and not diminish them at all in proportion to their uncertainty and unlikelihood.  To be clear, we are never actually certain; even Nethys, Ione told us, reasons in probabilities, just more extreme ones.  But sometimes we are sure enough that it's not worth the cost of thought to weigh the other possibilities more finely."

"A probability of 3 is like saying that the consequences of something weigh on your mind three times as much, getting three times the share of your limited resources, as some possibility you were absolutely certain of; and if you try to cash out what could even mean, you start getting results like the one Carissa talked about - that you spend 300 gold with certainty, in order to make back 100 gold with probability 3, because that outcome weighs three times as much in your calculations as if it were certain."

"Among the ways that we'd make our way to the corresponding law-Fragment if we were doing everything in slow careful order, would be to show that, if we're not going to end up going in circles in certain ways, we need to consistently weigh the possibilities we deal with, and make choices based on weights of consequences, and these weights of consequences end up looking like multiplying the consequences by their probability.  And then having gone through all that slow pathway, you'd be able to say, more generally than in the special case of merchant ships that have costs and profits measurable in gold, what ill fates will befall someone if they weigh a consequence three times more strongly than if it were certain."

"That's the principle you're missing, in this case.  I'm not actually going to cover that Law-fragment at least today, but I wanted to at least make clear what I was skipping; because someday in due time you're going to have to redesign Chelish education, and it's going to have to go back and fill in, not just that part, but all the other Law-fragments we're skipping that pin down and spotlight the Law of Probability."

"Or to summarize, and maybe to see it at a glance:  To see what bad thing would happen to you, if you assigned a probability of 3, you'd have to be using that probability for something and doing something with that probability, such as, for example, sending out merchant ships, or making a bet, or deciding how many of your limited spell slots to spend on preparing against a Nidal attack."

"But to generalize the point beyond merchant ships, the purpose for which we ultimately use our wordless senses of which things are more or less likely, is to divide up our few resources between the many things we could potentially try to do.  Not just limited resources like money, but limited time, limited attention; you can only act so often and only think so much."

"Tomorrow will go differently depending on whether Nidal has figured out our new location and attacks us again even with their god sealed up, or if, alternatively, we have an enjoyable day of lectures and me learning some magic and other activities.  In the latter case, Fox's Cunnings are quite useful.  In the former case, where Nidal attacks, Fox's Cunnings are less useful and spells for setting things on fire are more useful.  But again if it's a peaceful day, spells for setting things on fire are less useful."

"So how can we possibly plan, in such an uncertain world?  The best strategy if the universe is one way, is not at all the best strategy if the universe is a different way!  And we are uncertain and can never attain absolute certainty because it's not the sort of thing that's true in every possible world, and if it were we might make a logic error anyways.  Oh woe!  Oh alas!  Shall we just choose at random since no choice is perfectly defensible?"

"And the answer is, you put weights upon the different worlds that might be true, and figure out the consequences in those different worlds, and weigh those consequences according to their probability.  A thing that makes the scale from 0 to 1, more useful than the earlier scale from 1-12, is that 0 reflects not being at all concerned about the consequences to us in some world, because we think that reality just can't be that way, we multiply the weight of consequences there by 0 hundredths out of 100.  1 says that we're going to weigh the consequences only if that proposition is true, because we are certain of it; we're going to take all of those consequences as objects of concern, and not diminish them at all in proportion to their uncertainty and unlikelihood.  To be clear, we are never actually certain; even Nethys, Ione told us, reasons in probabilities, just more extreme ones.  But sometimes we are sure enough that it's not worth the cost of thought to weigh the other possibilities more finely."

"A probability of 3 is like saying that the consequences of something weigh on your mind three times as much, getting three times the share of your limited resources, as some possibility you were absolutely certain of; and if you try to cash out what that could even mean, you start getting results like the one Carissa talked about - that you spend 300 gold with certainty, in order to make back 100 gold with probability 3, because that outcome weighs three times as much in your calculations as if it were certain."

"Among the ways that we'd make our way to the corresponding law-Fragment if we were doing everything in slow careful order, would be to show that, if we're not going to end up going in circles in certain ways, we need to consistently weigh the possibilities we deal with, and make choices based on weights of consequences, and these weights of consequences end up looking like multiplying the consequences by their probability.  And then having gone through all that slow pathway, you'd be able to say, more generally than in the special case of merchant ships that have costs and profits measurable in gold, what ill fates will befall someone if they weigh a consequence three times more strongly than if it were certain."

"That's the principle you're missing, in this case.  I'm not actually going to cover that Law-fragment at least today, but I wanted to at least make clear what I was skipping; because someday in due time you're going to have to redesign Chelish education, and it's going to have to go back and fill in, not just that part, but all the other Law-fragments we're skipping that pin down and spotlight the Law of Probability."

"Or to summarize, and maybe to see it at a glance:  To see what bad thing would happen to you, if you assigned a probability of 3, you'd have to be using that probability for something and doing something with that probability, such as, for example, sending out merchant ships, or making a bet, or deciding how many of your limited spell slots to spend on preparing against a Nidal attack."