"You know, since it's you, I'll try improvising and see if you just get it."
"The general principle is, we compare the different ways reality could be, the different worlds we could be living in, and see whether our observations are more or less probable in different worlds. The fact that you didn't immediately say whether or not you were asexual, and asked me more questions about asexuals, doesn't prove you're an asexual. But you're more likely to do that if you're currently going WAIT WHAT inside yourself about how I mysteriously just nailed your sexuality - possibly one you didn't know was a standard sexuality five minutes ago, if Taldane has no word for 'asexual'. So my probability on you being asexual went up after that. Not up to certainty, just up."
"That said, the basic challenge, on a problem like this one where you didn't carefully write down your predictions in advance, is that you overestimate how much your favorite theory predicts things, and underestimate how much your less favorite theories predict things. I didn't expect, on being invited up here, that you were going to tell me you weren't currently attracted to me. It's not something the pattern told me to expect in advance. Afterwards, I thought of a different part of the pattern that could fit it, but the pattern is a very large one and has a lot of potential variations and you can probably twist it around to fit anything, the question is, how far did you have to twist it, and how much does that lower the probability it assigns."
"At least in dath ilan, I don't know about Golarion, 'asexuals' are not really that uncommon, and more common among women than men; the chance of there being an 'asexual' in a group this size is already probably something like 50%, and if anything, I'd guess that fewer than 50% of the instances of the pattern I was talking about have an 'asexual' in them. You could think about whether Asmodia is a special case of a random research group member, because she went to Hell and came back with no superpowers and now has a reason to talk with me, and whether it would be on-theme for the pattern if the 'asexual' was the one interesting girl who didn't have a weird background but was just very respectable by being better at Law than anyone, but the more you twist things around like that and specify more additional facts to make things fit, the more the probability goes down and down. It's like asking if a rival merchant ship will come in with a cargo of shoes from Absalom, instead of asking whether a competing supply of shoes appears in the city for any reason at all."
"It's really not the least bit impossible, in a world that isn't being influenced by this pattern at all, that I come up with a weird theory about you getting superpowers after coming back from death, which is just completely wrong, and that this in a totally natural and ordinary way, causes you to ask me some questions about that, and it comes up in the conversation that you're not attracted to me, which girls are allowed to be even if they're not asexual. Though - it does seem a little improbable that they'd ordinarily have an asexual in a group that was, I assume, put together the way this one must have been?"