Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts about 5th-circles and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound, and my numbers were all compatible with those facts, which make them noticeably more reasonable and useful."

"Now until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be sensible and constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to humans there, you learn to cast Make Up Probability and eventually upgrade that to Detect Constrained Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."

Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts about 5th-circles and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound, and my numbers were all compatible with those facts, which make them noticeably more reasonable and useful."

"Now until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be sensible and constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to humans there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Detect Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."

Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts about 5th-circles and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound, and my numbers were all compatible with those facts, which make them noticeably more reasonable and useful."

"Now until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be sensible and constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to humans there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Detect Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."

Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts about 5th-circles and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound.  My numbers were all compatible with those facts, which, if this were an actual mystery, might make them more able to support the weight of reasoning with them."

"Now a warning:  Until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to humans there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Detect Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."

Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts about 5th-circles and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound.  My numbers were all compatible with those facts, which, if this were an actual mystery, might make them more able to support the weight of reasoning with them."

"Now a warning:  Until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to mortals there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Make Up Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."

Not bad, though he should've remembered to ask for raised hands instead of just the answer.

"Yup.  Though it's important to remember that, in that case, the numbers really are ones I just made up.  Contrast to the way where I had a prior guess about the shape of the Intelligence distribution in the population from 14s to 18s, which matched up neatly with what Meritxell said about 15s vs 16s in the wizard academy, and then I asked for any relevant facts and Carissa had some notion of who you run into at the Worldwound.  My numbers were all compatible with those facts, which, if this were an actual mystery, might make them more able to support the weight of reasoning with them."

"Now a warning:  Until you've honed your ability to make up numbers and have them be constrained by other facts you know, you might be better off with your brain just feeling intuitively that some things make Carissa more or less likely to be the murderer, and not trying to know legibly to yourself what your brain is thinking.  If you make up a number like, Carissa is fifty percent likely to be able to cast Summon Monster III, and that number wasn't visibly constrained by any other facts you know, it's possible you might be better off by... rating it on a scale from 1-12 that you know doesn't actually mean anything, say, and letting your brain's intuitions take care of the rest."

"But this entire realm of thought is the realm that generalizes the notion of Validity that I told you about before - it's the realm of what is valid to say about uncertainty and things that might happen, which is most of what we ever want to think about.  The Law of that realm is the mathematics of probability."

"So to navigate an uncertain world Lawfully, for whatever the Law is worth to mortals there, you learn to cast Detect Probability and then Greater Make Up Probability and eventually end up with permanent Probability Sight."