"It's been - difficult for me to present this properly, I think, because I'm new to Golarion and don't know what problems would make a good point of it - but there's a way of thinking that sees everything in probabilities that shift as you learn new things, because of how facts are entangled with other facts.  Knowing that somebody made fifth-circle doesn't tell us their Intelligence for certain, but at INT 17 it's four times as likely than at INT 16 and twenty times as likely than INT 15, at least based on these numbers I made up - though not ungroundedly so, since even these made-up numbers were constrained by math I knew for the probable shape of the general population curves for how many INT 17s vs INT 15s, combined with Carissa's observation that there's more INT 16s than 15s or 17s among Worldwound 5th-circles, and slightly more 17s than 15s."

"If you only take into account the facts that overwhelmingly determine an answer, you'll miss an awful lot of facts and observations that shift probabilities a noticeable amount even if they don't shift them to ninety-nine hundredths."

"If you consider the original murder mystery I tried to offer you, what a dath ilani kid would've known to do - based on the way their parents talk, or some implicit aspect of previous training that I'm too young to remember and see the implications of - would be to ask about the probability that Carissa could've summoned a lantern archon, compared to Keltham being known to be able to do so.  Or how likely it is that, if you imagine the world where Carissa is the murderer, that she got into a heated argument with Meritxell about something the previous day, compared to the world where there was nothing to murder Meritxell about.  We might say that, the priors making Keltham and Carissa equally likely, we guess that Carissa is half as likely to have Summon Monster III in her spellbook compared to Keltham's certainty of being able to pray for it, and that Carissa is four times as likely to have something to argue about with Meritxell if we imagine ourselves in the world where she had some reason to kill Meritxell compared to the world where Keltham had some reason to kill Meritxell.  Then what's the chance that Carissa, versus Keltham, killed Meritxell?"

"It's been - difficult for me to present this properly, I think, because I'm new to Golarion and don't know what problems would make a good point of it - but there's a way of thinking that sees everything in probabilities that shift as you learn new things, because of how facts are entangled with other facts.  Knowing that somebody made fifth-circle doesn't tell us their Intelligence for certain, but at INT 17 it's four times as likely than at INT 16 and twenty times as likely than INT 15, at least based on these numbers I made up - though not ungroundedly so, since even these made-up numbers were constrained by math I knew for the probable shape of the general population curves for how many INT 17s vs INT 15s, combined with Carissa's observation that there's more INT 16s than 15s or 17s among Worldwound 5th-circles, and slightly more 17s than 15s."

"If you only take into account the facts that overwhelmingly determine an answer, you'll miss an awful lot of facts and observations that shift probabilities a noticeable amount even if they don't shift them to ninety-nine hundredths."

"If you consider the original murder mystery I tried to offer you, what a dath ilani kid would've known to do - based on the way their parents talk, or some implicit aspect of previous training that I'm too young to remember and see the implications of - would be to ask about the probability that Carissa could've summoned a lantern archon, compared to Keltham being known to be able to do so.  Or how likely it is that, if you imagine the world where Carissa is the murderer, that she got into a heated argument with Meritxell about something the previous day, compared to the world where there was nothing to murder Meritxell about.  We might say that the priors make Keltham and Carissa equally likely so far as we know, we guess that Carissa is half as likely to have Summon Monster III in her spellbook compared to Keltham's certainty of being able to pray for it, and that Carissa is four times as likely to have something to argue about with Meritxell if we imagine ourselves in the world where she had some reason to kill Meritxell compared to the world where Keltham had some reason to kill Meritxell.  Then what's the chance that Carissa, versus Keltham, killed Meritxell?"

"It's been - difficult for me to present this properly, I think, because I'm new to Golarion and don't know what problems would make a good point of it - but there's a way of thinking that sees everything in probabilities that shift as you learn new things, because of how facts are entangled with other facts.  Knowing that somebody made fifth-circle doesn't tell us their Intelligence for certain, but at INT 17 it's four times as likely than at INT 16 and twenty times as likely than INT 15, at least based on these numbers I made up - though not ungroundedly so, since even these made-up numbers were constrained by math I knew for the probable shape of the general population curves for how many INT 17s vs INT 15s, combined with Carissa's observation that there's more INT 16s than 15s or 17s among Worldwound 5th-circles, and slightly more 17s than 15s."

"If you only take into account the facts that overwhelmingly determine an answer, you'll miss an awful lot of facts and observations that shift probabilities a noticeable amount even if they don't shift them to ninety-nine hundredths."

"If you consider the original murder mystery I tried to offer you, what a dath ilani kid would've known to do - based on the way their parents talk, or some implicit aspect of previous training that I'm too young to remember and see the implications of - would be to ask about the probability that Carissa could've summoned a lantern archon, compared to Keltham being known to be able to do so.  Or how likely it is that, if you imagine the world where Carissa is the murderer, that she got into a heated argument with Meritxell about something the previous day, compared to the world where there was nothing to murder Meritxell about."

"We might say that the priors make Keltham and Carissa equally likely so far as we know, we guess that Carissa is half as likely to have Summon Monster III in her spellbook compared to Keltham's certainty of being able to pray for it, and that Carissa is four times as likely to have something to argue about with Meritxell if we imagine ourselves in the world where she had some reason to kill Meritxell compared to the world where Keltham had some reason to kill Meritxell.  Then what's the chance that Carissa, versus Keltham, killed Meritxell?  So far as we know."