"Well, suppose we were trying to solve an old murder mystery, Death At Ostenso Academy, which happened forty years back.  We've got a piece of evidence that their INT was between 15 and 17.  Another piece of evidence rules out all the INT 16s because they were all taking a specialized class at the time.  Going on 'priors', I think maybe priors would be the best Taldane translation, we'd say there was only a 6% chance of the murderer being an INT 17, because most students at Ostenso Academy aren't INT 17s."

"However, now suppose we get a new piece of evidence about a later murder, clearly connected to the old one, which appears to have been committed by a fifth-circle wizard who served at the Worldwound.  Suppose, somebody says, that both murders were committed by the same person.  In that case, we now think that maybe both murders were likely committed by an INT 17, with probability of 57% for that and 43% for INT 15."

"Well, suppose we were trying to solve an old murder mystery, Death At Ostenso Academy, which happened forty years back.  We've got a piece of evidence that their INT was between 15 and 17.  Another piece of evidence rules out all the INT 16s because they were all taking a specialized class at the time.  Going on 'priors', I think maybe priors would be the best Taldane translation, we'd say there was only a 6% chance of the murderer being an INT 17, because most students at Ostenso Academy aren't INT 17s."

"However, now suppose we get a new piece of evidence about a later murder, clearly connected to the old one, which appears to have been committed by a fifth-circle wizard who served at the Worldwound.  Suppose, somebody says, that both murders were committed by the same person.  In that case, we now think that the murders were likely committed by an INT 17, with probability of 57% for that and 43% for INT 15."

"Well, suppose we were trying to solve an old murder mystery, Death At Ostenso Academy, which happened forty years back.  We've got a piece of evidence that their INT was between 15 and 17.  Another piece of evidence rules out all the INT 16s because they were all taking a specialized class at the time.  Going on 'priors', I think maybe priors would be the best Taldane translation, we'd say there was only a 6% chance of the murderer being an INT 17, because most students at Ostenso Academy aren't INT 17s."

"However, now suppose we get a new piece of evidence about a later murder, clearly connected to the old one, which appears to have been committed by a fifth-circle wizard who served at the Worldwound.  Suppose, somebody says, that both murders were committed by the same person.  In that case, we now think that the previous murder was likely committed by an INT 17 student, with probability of 57% for that and 43% for INT 15."