"The problem is that I haven't been in Golarion long enough to learn a lot of probabilities and use them myself very much on problems with this structure, and the ones where I've resorted to it have been about weird exotic things I couldn't figure out by simpler methods, like the timing of the Zon-Kuthon attack relative to when I went outside the Forbiddance, or the chance that Carissa would mysteriously fail to make her afterlife arrangements."

"Okay, uh, possibly much simpler example.  Around what fraction of wizard students in your academy had Intelligence 16, 17, 18?"

"The problem is that I haven't been in Golarion long enough to learn a lot of probabilities and use them myself very much on problems with this structure, and the ones where I've resorted to it have been about weird exotic things I couldn't figure out by simpler methods, like the timing of the Zon-Kuthon attack relative to when I went outside the Forbiddance, or the chance that Carissa would mysteriously fail to make her afterlife arrangements."

"Okay, uh, hopefully much simpler example.  Around what fraction of wizard students in your academy had Intelligence 16, 17, 18?"

"The problem I'm having with thinking up simpler and more realistic examples is that I haven't been in Golarion long enough to learn a lot of probabilities and use them myself on problems with this structure.  The cases where I've resorted to explicit reasoning of this form, have been about weird exotic things I couldn't figure out by simpler methods, like the timing of the Zon-Kuthon attack relative to when I went outside the Forbiddance, or the chance that Carissa would mysteriously fail to make her afterlife arrangements."

"Okay, uh, hopefully much simpler example.  Around what fraction of wizard students in your academy had Intelligence 16, 17, 18?"

"The problem I'm having with thinking up simpler and more realistic examples is that I haven't been in Golarion long enough to learn a lot of probabilities and use them myself on problems with this structure.  The cases where I've resorted to explicit reasoning of this form, have been about weird exotic things I couldn't figure out by simpler methods, like the timing of the Zon-Kuthon attack relative to when I went outside the Forbiddance, or the implications if Carissa mysteriously failed to make her afterlife arrangements."

"Okay, uh, hopefully much simpler example.  Around what fraction of wizard students in your academy had Intelligence 16, 17, 18?"