"So far we've talked about two of Probability's - let's call them Law-fragments, the 'Baseline' term won't translate easily if at all."

"The first Law-fragment was that, if you're just rating how likely things are to happen or be true, even if it's just on a scale from 1 to 12 where nothing on the scale is labeled, it still seems pretty reasonable that you can't say it's more likely for strictly more" propositions "things to be true.  Even if the scale isn't labeled enough that we know where to put a chance that's half some other chance, it can't be more likely that we have beef for lunch, than that we have beef for lunch and a spun coin lands Queen."  (Keltham has of course returned Carissa's gold coin to her by this point; you can tell, because he still has cleric powers.  He has now exchanged some of his platinum for gold, silver, and copper, and has his own copper coins about him.)

"Even if you're Ione and can predict the coinflips, beef and Queen cannot be more likely than beef whether or not Queen.  And you might think this Law-fragment so obvious and trivial as to be useless, but in fact, most of you collectively - perhaps not all individually, who can say - must have been thinking in a way that visibly violated the principle."

"The second Law-fragment I taught you was incomplete, because I'm running through all of these things way too fast, to get to proof-of-concept profits as early as possible.  We could say that this fragment is about comparing estimates of how likely things are, to what actually happens.  It generalizes the way that, for example... actually I should just quickly run through this earlier part, because you wouldn't have heard it explicitly even if you understood implicitly, because Golarion."

"So far we've talked about two of Probability's - let's call them Law-fragments, the 'Baseline' term won't translate easily if at all."

"The first Law-fragment was that, if you're just rating how likely things are to happen or be true, even if it's just on a scale from 1 to 12 where nothing on the scale is labeled, it still seems pretty reasonable that you can't say it's more likely for strictly more" propositions "things to be true.  Even if the scale isn't labeled enough that we know where to put a chance that's half some other chance, it can't be more likely that we have beef for lunch, than that we have beef for lunch and a spun coin lands Queen."  (Keltham has of course returned Carissa's gold coin to her by this point; you can tell, because he still has cleric powers.  He has now exchanged some of his platinum for gold, silver, and copper, and has his own coins about him.)

"Even if you're Ione and can predict the coinflips, beef and Queen cannot be more likely than beef whether or not Queen.  And you might think this Law-fragment so obvious and trivial as to be useless, but in fact, most of you collectively - perhaps not all individually, who can say - must have been thinking in a way that visibly violated the principle."

"The second Law-fragment I taught you was incomplete, because I'm running through all of these things way too fast, to get to proof-of-concept profits as early as possible.  We could say that this fragment is about comparing estimates of how likely things are, to what actually happens.  It generalizes the way that, for example... actually I should just quickly run through this earlier part, because you wouldn't have heard it explicitly even if you understood implicitly, because Golarion."

"So far we've talked about two of Probability's - let's call them Law-fragments, the 'Baseline' term won't translate easily if at all."

"The first Law-fragment was that, if you're rating how likely things are to happen or be true, even if it's just on a scale from 1 to 12 where nothing on the scale is labeled, it still seems pretty reasonable that you can't say it's more likely that strictly more" propositions "things are true.  Even if the scale isn't labeled enough that we know where to put a chance that's half some other chance, it can't be more likely that we have beef for lunch, than that we have beef for lunch and a spun coin lands Queen."  (Keltham has of course returned Carissa's gold coin to her by this point; you can tell, because he still has cleric powers.  He has now exchanged some of his platinum for gold, silver, and copper, and has his own coins about him.)

"Even if you're Ione and can predict the coinflips, beef and Queen cannot be more likely than beef whether or not Queen.  And you might think this Law-fragment so obvious and trivial as to be useless; but in fact, most of you collectively - perhaps not all individually, who can say - must have been thinking in a way that violated the principle."

"The second Law-fragment I taught you was incomplete, because I'm running through all of these things way too fast, to get to proof-of-concept profits as early as possible.  We could say that this fragment is about comparing estimates of how likely things are, to what actually happens.  It generalizes the way that, for example... actually I should just quickly run through this earlier part, because you wouldn't have heard it explicitly even if you understood implicitly, because Golarion."

"So far we've talked about two of Probability's - let's call them Law-fragments, the 'Baseline' term won't translate easily if at all."

"The first Law-fragment was that, if you're rating how likely things are to happen or be true, even if it's just on a scale from 1 to 12 where nothing on the scale is labeled, it still seems pretty reasonable that you can't say it's more likely that strictly more" propositions "things are true.  Even if the scale isn't labeled enough that we know where to put a chance that's half some other chance, it can't be less likely that we have beef for lunch, than that we have beef for lunch and a spun coin lands Queen."  (Keltham has of course returned Carissa's gold coin to her by this point; you can tell, because he still has cleric powers.  He has now exchanged some of his platinum for gold, silver, and copper, and has his own coins about him.)

"Even if you're Ione and can predict the coinflips, beef and Queen cannot be more likely than beef whether or not Queen.  And you might think this Law-fragment so obvious and trivial as to be useless; but in fact, most of you collectively - perhaps not all individually, who can say - must have been thinking in a way that violated the principle."

"The second Law-fragment I taught you was incomplete, because I'm running through all of these things way too fast, to get to proof-of-concept profits as early as possible.  We could say that this fragment is about comparing estimates of how likely things are, to what actually happens.  It generalizes the way that, for example... actually I should just quickly run through this earlier part, because you wouldn't have heard it explicitly even if you understood implicitly, because Golarion."