"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some magic practice by me after that."

"This has not been the Law of Probability, to be clear, this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and that part wasn't really complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."

"This has not been the Law of Probability, to be clear, this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and that part wasn't really complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."

"This ended up not being the Law of Probability, as it has apparently turned out; this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and it wasn't really complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."

"This ended up not being the Law of Probability, as it has apparently turned out; this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and it wasn't really complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

Oh, and Keltham will write down all the log2 values for some landmark probabilities from 95% down to 0.0001%.  You sure do lose a lot of bits by saying 0.0001% for something that goes and happens!

"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."

"This ended up not being the Law of Probability, as it has apparently turned out; this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and the lesson wasn't complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

Oh, and Keltham will write down all the log2 values for some landmark probabilities from 95% down to 0.0001%.  You sure do lose a lot of bits by saying 0.0001% for something that goes and happens!

"Seems like a natural place to call it for lunchtime, and maybe break for some wizard-spells practice by me after that."

"This ended up not being the Law of Probability, as it has apparently turned out; this has just been the Law of Scoring Predictions, and the lesson wasn't complete.  I haven't gone through the calculus to show you that, for every chance-in-reality, you get the best expected score by naming that chance as your estimate."

"But the Law of Scoring does get you far enough to know what a probability is, and to start practicing the skills of putting probabilities on things, and have some idea of how well you're doing at that."

Oh, and Keltham will write down all the log2 values for some landmark probabilities from 99% down to 0.0001%.  You sure do lose a lot of bits by saying 0.0001% for something that goes and happens!