"Even if something didn't happen very often, let's say a Nidal invasion instead of that other thing, I might go to the person who had a really good record about ships.  I mean, it might not be optimal, but at the very least they'd have a bunch of experience with how to hone and slice anything down to the difference between one-third and one-fourth.  And they'd answer in numbers that meant that, instead of saying 3 or 9 on a 12-point scale and then you've got to pause and ask them for a hundred predictions like that so you can even figure out what a 3 or a 9 mean."

"Well, anyways, let's say that in this game you give a number from 0 to 100, and those numbers are the chances out of 100.  If something happens 1 time in 4, you say 25, because something that happens 1 time in 4 will also happen 25 times out of 100."

"How do you score those numbers from 0 to 100?"

"Even if something didn't happen very often, let's say a Nidal invasion instead of that other thing, I might go to the person who had a really good record about ships.  I mean, it might not be optimal, but at the very least they'd have a bunch of experience with how to hone and slice anything down to the difference between one-third and one-fourth.  And they'd answer in numbers that meant that, instead of saying 3 or 9 on a 12-point scale and then you've got to pause and ask them for a hundred predictions like that so you can even figure out what a 3 or a 9 mean."

"Well, anyways, let's say that in this game you give a number from 0 to 100, and those numbers are supposed to directly represent the chances out of 100.  If something happens 1 time in 4, you say 25, because something that happens 1 time in 4 will also happen 25 times out of 100."

"How do you score those numbers from 0 to 100?"