Keltham is tempted at this point to poop out all this shit and tap himself with the Owl's Wisdom and to hell with personality integrity, shit just got visibly really serious instead of more quietly really serious.  He doesn't consider the thought for very long; the time to tap himself with Owl's Wisdom, if he wasn't an idiot, was either the moment when the crisis started, or sometime before then.  If it's not an emergency you don't take mind-altering performance drugs in the kind of state that Keltham is in right now.

Were the two Auguries meant to indicate that this particular Augury was really important - that's plausibly - that's plausibly it, if he'd cast the second Augury then, and got a result of massive disaster from heading outside the Forbiddance, that would've - maybe that was what was meant to happen but how was Keltham supposed to know, he'd thought it was one spell to figure out what the spell was and then the second one when he'd had time to think of a question -

Not his fault, plausibly, in a way that makes sense to blame himself for; there's no obvious actually-general heuristic to update, here, that isn't just "use both Auguries on the first question to enter your mind".  Keltham's god might not have been able to exactly predict -

"I got two Auguries.  I thought the first one was to find out what the spell was and the second one was for when I'd had time to think of the right question.  If my god thought that three-quarters the first Augury wouldn't fail, but if it did fail, I would use the second one - or if people just always get two Auguries for redundancy - then maybe we weren't supposed to go outside, we were supposed to get a result showing disaster if we went outside and that would have tipped us off without us going outside.  If that's true then my god is not a perfect predictor, they're not looking into the future, they're working off a fallible model.  In that case they wouldn't have been able to do exact timing, and that attack was set to go off the moment I went outside, not because my god predicted the timing that precisely."

"Similarly, when it comes to Zon-Kuthon, our two obvious hypotheses are, one, attack was building since yesterday, god warned us of it yesterday.  Two, that spell was a warning of something else, I misinterpreted it as Zon-Kuthon, and somehow that triggered the attack by Zon-Kuthon, like by my thinking of him loudly enough that he heard it like a prayer, which does not seem particularly plausible to me but I'm saying it out loud anyways because Golarion."

Or, of course, somebody in Governance heard him say it, and thought it would be a great thing to fake without the slightest use of subtlety.  The light shows overhead - could have been locally faked to look global.  Maybe Ione can grab a newspaper from Ostenso library and see if it mentions -

Well, that might work if Ione is still Ione.

"So.  How did they know the moment I went outside."

Keltham is tempted at this point to poop out all this shit and tap himself with the Owl's Wisdom and to hell with personality integrity, shit just got visibly really serious instead of quietly really serious.  He doesn't consider the thought for very long; the time to tap himself with Owl's Wisdom, if he wasn't an idiot, was either the moment when the crisis started, or sometime before then.  If it's not an emergency you don't take mind-altering performance drugs in the kind of state that Keltham is in right now.

Were the two Auguries meant to indicate that this particular Augury was really important - that's plausibly - that's plausibly it, if he'd cast the second Augury then, and got a result of massive disaster from heading outside the Forbiddance, that would've - maybe that was what was meant to happen but how was Keltham supposed to know, he'd thought it was one spell to figure out what the spell was and then the second one when he'd had time to think of a question -

Not his fault, plausibly, in a way that makes sense to blame himself for; there's no obvious actually-general heuristic to update, here, that isn't just "use both Auguries on the first question to enter your mind".  Keltham's god might not have been able to exactly predict -

"I got two Auguries.  I thought the first one was to find out what the spell was and the second one was for when I'd had time to think of the right question.  If my god thought that three-quarters the first Augury wouldn't fail, but if it did fail, I would use the second one - or if people just always get two Auguries for redundancy - then maybe we weren't supposed to go outside, we were supposed to get a result showing disaster if we went outside and that would have tipped us off without us going outside.  If that's true then my god is not a perfect predictor, they're not looking into the future, they're working off a fallible model.  In that case they wouldn't have been able to do exact timing, and that attack was set to go off the moment I went outside, not because my god predicted the timing that precisely."

"Similarly, when it comes to Zon-Kuthon, our two obvious hypotheses are, one, attack was building since yesterday, god warned us of it yesterday.  Two, that spell was a warning of something else, I misinterpreted it as Zon-Kuthon, and somehow that triggered the attack by Zon-Kuthon, like by my thinking of him loudly enough that he heard it like a prayer, which does not seem particularly plausible to me but I'm saying it out loud anyways because Golarion."

Or, of course, somebody in Governance heard him say it, and thought it would be a great thing to fake without the slightest use of subtlety.  The light shows overhead - could have been locally faked to look global.  Maybe Ione can grab a newspaper from Ostenso library and see if it mentions -

Well, that might work if Ione is still Ione.

"So.  How did they know the moment I went outside."

Keltham is tempted at this point to poop out all this shit and tap himself with the Owl's Wisdom and to hell with personality integrity, shit just got visibly really serious instead of quietly really serious.  He doesn't consider the thought for very long; the time to tap himself with Owl's Wisdom, if he hadn't been an idiot, was either the moment when the crisis started, or sometime before then.  If it's not an emergency you don't take mind-altering performance drugs in the kind of state that Keltham is in right now.

Were the two Auguries meant to indicate that this particular Augury was really important - that's plausibly - that's plausibly it, if he'd cast the second Augury then, and got a result of massive disaster from heading outside the Forbiddance, that would've - maybe that was what was meant to happen but how was Keltham supposed to know, he'd thought it was one spell to figure out what the spell was and then the second one when he'd had time to think of a question -

Not his fault, plausibly, in a way that makes sense to blame himself for; there's no obvious actually-general heuristic to update, here, that isn't just "use both Auguries on the first question to enter your mind".  Keltham's god might not have been able to exactly predict -

"I got two Auguries.  I thought the first one was to find out what the spell was and the second one was for when I'd had time to think of the right question.  If my god thought that three-quarters the first Augury wouldn't fail, but if it did fail, I would use the second one - or if people just always get two Auguries for redundancy - then maybe we weren't supposed to go outside, we were supposed to get a result showing disaster if we went outside and that would have tipped us off without us going outside.  If that's true then my god is not a perfect predictor, they're not looking into the future, they're working off a fallible model.  In that case they wouldn't have been able to do exact timing, and that attack was set to go off the moment I went outside, not because my god predicted the timing that precisely."

"Similarly, when it comes to Zon-Kuthon, our two obvious hypotheses are, one, attack was building since yesterday, god warned us of it yesterday.  Two, that spell was a warning of something else, I misinterpreted it as Zon-Kuthon, and somehow that triggered the attack by Zon-Kuthon, like by my thinking of him loudly enough that he heard it like a prayer, which does not seem particularly plausible to me but I'm saying it out loud anyways because Golarion."

Or, of course, somebody in Governance heard him say it, and thought it would be a great thing to fake without the slightest use of subtlety.  The light shows overhead - could have been locally faked to look global.  Maybe Ione can grab a newspaper from Ostenso library and see if it mentions -

Well, that might work if Ione is still Ione.

"So.  How did they know the moment I went outside."