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Version: 1
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Applied directly to the situation with Cheliax, the method says, roughly, that Keltham should receive an amount proportional to how much marginal product he adds, on average, to all possible subsets of Cheliax.  If Cheliax had only half its current people, for example, Keltham might only add around half as much value.  For even smaller subsets of Cheliax, product might fall superlinearly; Keltham couldn't necessarily accomplish 1/20,000,000th as much with a single Chelaxian.

It adds up to 'somewhat less than half of his marginal product when added to all of Cheliax, probably'.  Yes, this is a very simple answer to be produced by all that logic; but the point is that Keltham knows why that is the fair answer and what he ought to do if he gets offered less.


Keltham doesn't spell out this part explicitly, or say that he was willing to accept less than Cheliax's opening offer taken at face value.  They offered him more than half, which is itself surprising, and could obviously indicate that they really want to get this trade done; if that's all that's going on, Keltham will voluntarily nudge the terms back down.  It could also be about Cheliax expecting those terms to make up for difficulty in accurately measuring the gains to the country, using some measuring methodology that is expected to be an underestimate of the real value; or it could be that Cheliax is thinking the split is about direct profits from project sales, where Chelish consumers are capturing much more value than the sale price of the products, the consumer surplus.

Also Keltham might find there's weird terms or conditions in there, in which case he wants to keep that higher initial offer on hand so he can burn percentage points as bargaining power, to iron out the terms and conditions.  He can always hand back any excessively generous jellychips that are still left at the end of that.

Version: 2
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Applied directly to the situation with Cheliax, the method says, roughly, that Keltham should receive an amount proportional to how much marginal product he adds, on average, to all possible subsets of Cheliax.  If Cheliax had only half its current people, for example, Keltham might only add around half as much value.  For even smaller subsets of Cheliax, product might fall superlinearly; Keltham couldn't necessarily accomplish 1/20,000,000th as much with a single Chelaxian.

It adds up to 'somewhat less than half of his marginal product when added to all of Cheliax, probably'.  Yes, this is a very simple answer to be produced by all that logic; but the point is that Keltham knows why that is the fair answer and what he ought to do if he gets offered less.


Keltham doesn't spell out this part explicitly, or say that he was willing to accept Cheliax's opening offer taken at face value, and indeed would have compromised on substantially less had it been necessary.  Cheliax mentioned difficulties in accurately measuring the gains to the country, and may intend to offer a measuring methodology may be expected to be an underestimate of the real value; or it could be that Cheliax is thinking the split is about direct profits from project sales, where Chelish consumers are capturing much more value than the sale price of the products, the consumer surplus.

Also Keltham might find there's weird terms or conditions in there, in which case he wants to get the highest initial offer on hand so he can burn percentage points as bargaining power, to iron out the terms and conditions.  He can always hand back any excessively generous jellychips that are still left at the end of that.

Version: 3
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Applied directly to the situation with Cheliax, the method says, roughly, that Keltham should receive an amount proportional to how much marginal product he adds, on average, to all possible (ordered) subsets of Cheliax.  If Cheliax had only half its current people, for example, Keltham might only add around half as much value.  For even smaller subsets of Cheliax, product might fall superlinearly; Keltham couldn't necessarily accomplish 1/20,000,000th as much with a single Chelaxian.

It adds up to 'somewhat less than half of his marginal product when added to all of Cheliax, probably'.  Yes, this is a very simple answer to be produced by all that logic; but the point is that Keltham knows why that is the fair answer and what he ought to do if he gets offered less.


Keltham doesn't spell out this part explicitly, or say that he was willing to accept Cheliax's opening offer taken at face value, and indeed would have compromised on substantially less had it been necessary.  Cheliax mentioned difficulties in accurately measuring the gains to the country, and may intend to offer a measuring methodology expected to be an underestimate of the real value; or it could be that Cheliax is thinking the split is about direct profits from project sales, where Chelish consumers are capturing much more value than the sale price of the products, the consumer surplus.

Also Keltham might find there's weird terms or conditions in there, in which case he wants to get the highest initial offer on hand so he can burn percentage points as bargaining power, to iron out the terms and conditions.  He can always hand back any excessively generous jellychips that are still left at the end of that.