"Well, the central trust fountains come from people with ridiculous, clearly non-chance outperformance at some task vey demanding of mental acuity, where it's easier to judge later who got it right than it was to solve the problem earlier on.  The classic example of a trust fountain would be Warren Buffett what no would be Nemamel, who beat the prediction markets for roughly her entire life, to the point where she could only trade anonymously and the name got retired for future children.  Now say you have a good trading record, were first to short an experimental paper you later helped overturn in detail, staked a prediction market that later turned out important, you write a lot of essays that seem well-argued, and then somebody like Nemamel says she thinks your essays are making a useful contribution to Civilization.  Somebody like that is liable to be taken seriously, in the sense that other Very Serious People take the time to respond to their essays?"

"Well, the central trust fountains come from people with ridiculous, clearly non-chance outperformance at some task very demanding of mental acuity, where it's easier to judge later who got it right than it was to solve the problem earlier on.  One classic example of a trust fountain would be Warren Buffett what no would be Nemamel, who beat the prediction markets for roughly her entire life, to the point where she could only trade anonymously and the name got retired for future children.  Now say you have a good trading record, were first to short an experimental paper you later helped overturn in detail, staked a prediction market that later turned out important, you write a lot of essays that seem well-argued, and then somebody like Nemamel says she thinks your essays are making a useful contribution to Civilization.  Somebody like that is liable to be taken seriously, in the sense that other Very Serious People take the time to respond to their essays?"

"Well, the central trust fountains come from people with ridiculous, clearly non-chance outperformance at some task very demanding of mental acuity, where it's easier to judge later who got it right than it was to solve the problem earlier on.  One classic example of a trust fountain would be Warren Buffett what no would be Nemamel, who beat the prediction markets for roughly her entire life, to the point where she could only trade anonymously and the name got retired for future children.  Now say you have a good trading record, were first to short an experimental paper you later helped overturn in detail, initially staked a prediction market that later turned out important, wrote a lot of essays that seem well-argued, and then somebody like Nemamel says she thinks your essays are making a useful contribution to Civilization.  Somebody like that is liable to be taken seriously, in the sense that other Very Serious People take the time to respond to their essays?"